1 Data preparation

1.1 Outline

  • Load scripts: loads libraries and useful scripts used in the analyses; all .R files contained in scripts at the root of the factory are automatically loaded

  • Load data: imports datasets, and may contain some ad hoc changes to the data such as specific data cleaning (not used in other reports), new variables used in the analyses, etc.

1.2 Load packages


library(reportfactory)
library(here)
library(rio) 
library(tidyverse)
library(incidence)
library(distcrete)
library(epitrix)
library(earlyR)
library(projections)
library(linelist)
library(remotes)
library(janitor)
library(kableExtra)
library(DT)
library(cyphr)
library(chngpt)
library(lubridate)
library(ggpubr)
library(ggnewscale)

1.3 Load scripts

These scripts will load:

  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /scripts/
  • all scripts stored as .R files inside /src/

These scripts also contain routines to access the latest clean encrypted data (see next section).


reportfactory::rfh_load_scripts()

1.4 Load clean data

We import the latest NHS pathways data:


x <- import_pathways() %>%
  as_tibble()
x
## # A tibble: 435,784 x 11
##    site_type date       sex   age   ccg_code ccg_name count postcode nhs_region
##    <chr>     <date>     <chr> <chr> <chr>    <chr>    <int> <chr>    <chr>     
##  1 111       2020-03-18 fema… miss… e380000… nhs_glo…     1 gl34fe   South West
##  2 111       2020-03-18 fema… miss… e380001… nhs_sou…     1 ne325nn  North Eas…
##  3 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_air…     8 bd57jr   North Eas…
##  4 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_ash…     7 tn254ab  South East
##  5 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    35 rm13ae   London    
##  6 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…     9 n111np   London    
##  7 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bar…    11 s752py   North Eas…
##  8 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…    19 ss143hg  East of E…
##  9 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bas…     6 dn227xf  North Eas…
## 10 111       2020-03-18 fema… 0-18  e380000… nhs_bat…     9 ba25rp   South West
## # … with 435,774 more rows, and 2 more variables: day <int>, weekday <fct>

We also import demographics data for NHS regions in England, used later in our analysis:


path <- here::here("data", "csv", "nhs_region_population_2018.csv")
nhs_region_pop <- rio::import(path) %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", nhs_region_pop$nhs_region)
nhs_region_pop
##                  nhs_region variable      value
## 1                North West     0-18 0.22538599
## 2  North East and Yorkshire     0-18 0.21876449
## 3                  Midlands     0-18 0.22564656
## 4           East of England     0-18 0.22810783
## 5                    London     0-18 0.23764782
## 6                South East     0-18 0.22458811
## 7                South West     0-18 0.20799797
## 8                North West    19-69 0.64274078
## 9  North East and Yorkshire    19-69 0.64437753
## 10                 Midlands    19-69 0.63876675
## 11          East of England    19-69 0.63034229
## 12                   London    19-69 0.67820084
## 13               South East    19-69 0.63267336
## 14               South West    19-69 0.63176131
## 15               North West   70-120 0.13187323
## 16 North East and Yorkshire   70-120 0.13685797
## 17                 Midlands   70-120 0.13558669
## 18          East of England   70-120 0.14154988
## 19                   London   70-120 0.08415135
## 20               South East   70-120 0.14273853
## 21               South West   70-120 0.16024072

Finally, we import publically available deaths per NHS region:


dth <- import_deaths() %>%
  mutate(nhs_region = str_to_title(gsub("_"," ",nhs_region)))

#truncation to account for reporting delay
delay_max <- 21

dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" Of ", " of ", dth$nhs_region)
dth$nhs_region <- gsub(" And ", " and ", dth$nhs_region)
dth
##      date_report               nhs_region deaths
## 1     2020-03-01          East of England      0
## 2     2020-03-02          East of England      1
## 3     2020-03-03          East of England      0
## 4     2020-03-04          East of England      0
## 5     2020-03-05          East of England      0
## 6     2020-03-06          East of England      1
## 7     2020-03-07          East of England      0
## 8     2020-03-08          East of England      0
## 9     2020-03-09          East of England      1
## 10    2020-03-10          East of England      0
## 11    2020-03-11          East of England      0
## 12    2020-03-12          East of England      0
## 13    2020-03-13          East of England      1
## 14    2020-03-14          East of England      2
## 15    2020-03-15          East of England      2
## 16    2020-03-16          East of England      1
## 17    2020-03-17          East of England      1
## 18    2020-03-18          East of England      5
## 19    2020-03-19          East of England      4
## 20    2020-03-20          East of England      2
## 21    2020-03-21          East of England     11
## 22    2020-03-22          East of England     12
## 23    2020-03-23          East of England     11
## 24    2020-03-24          East of England     19
## 25    2020-03-25          East of England     26
## 26    2020-03-26          East of England     36
## 27    2020-03-27          East of England     38
## 28    2020-03-28          East of England     28
## 29    2020-03-29          East of England     43
## 30    2020-03-30          East of England     45
## 31    2020-03-31          East of England     70
## 32    2020-04-01          East of England     62
## 33    2020-04-02          East of England     65
## 34    2020-04-03          East of England     80
## 35    2020-04-04          East of England     71
## 36    2020-04-05          East of England     76
## 37    2020-04-06          East of England     71
## 38    2020-04-07          East of England     93
## 39    2020-04-08          East of England    111
## 40    2020-04-09          East of England     87
## 41    2020-04-10          East of England     74
## 42    2020-04-11          East of England     92
## 43    2020-04-12          East of England    100
## 44    2020-04-13          East of England     78
## 45    2020-04-14          East of England     61
## 46    2020-04-15          East of England     82
## 47    2020-04-16          East of England     74
## 48    2020-04-17          East of England     86
## 49    2020-04-18          East of England     64
## 50    2020-04-19          East of England     67
## 51    2020-04-20          East of England     67
## 52    2020-04-21          East of England     75
## 53    2020-04-22          East of England     67
## 54    2020-04-23          East of England     49
## 55    2020-04-24          East of England     66
## 56    2020-04-25          East of England     54
## 57    2020-04-26          East of England     48
## 58    2020-04-27          East of England     46
## 59    2020-04-28          East of England     58
## 60    2020-04-29          East of England     32
## 61    2020-04-30          East of England     45
## 62    2020-05-01          East of England     49
## 63    2020-05-02          East of England     29
## 64    2020-05-03          East of England     41
## 65    2020-05-04          East of England     19
## 66    2020-05-05          East of England     36
## 67    2020-05-06          East of England     31
## 68    2020-05-07          East of England     33
## 69    2020-05-08          East of England     33
## 70    2020-05-09          East of England     29
## 71    2020-05-10          East of England     22
## 72    2020-05-11          East of England     18
## 73    2020-05-12          East of England     21
## 74    2020-05-13          East of England     27
## 75    2020-05-14          East of England     26
## 76    2020-05-15          East of England     19
## 77    2020-05-16          East of England     26
## 78    2020-05-17          East of England     17
## 79    2020-05-18          East of England     25
## 80    2020-05-19          East of England     15
## 81    2020-05-20          East of England     26
## 82    2020-05-21          East of England     21
## 83    2020-05-22          East of England     13
## 84    2020-05-23          East of England     12
## 85    2020-05-24          East of England     17
## 86    2020-05-25          East of England     25
## 87    2020-05-26          East of England     14
## 88    2020-05-27          East of England     12
## 89    2020-05-28          East of England     17
## 90    2020-05-29          East of England     16
## 91    2020-05-30          East of England      9
## 92    2020-05-31          East of England      8
## 93    2020-06-01          East of England     17
## 94    2020-06-02          East of England     14
## 95    2020-06-03          East of England     10
## 96    2020-06-04          East of England      7
## 97    2020-06-05          East of England     14
## 98    2020-06-06          East of England      5
## 99    2020-06-07          East of England      9
## 100   2020-06-08          East of England      7
## 101   2020-06-09          East of England      6
## 102   2020-06-10          East of England      8
## 103   2020-06-11          East of England      1
## 104   2020-06-12          East of England      9
## 105   2020-06-13          East of England      5
## 106   2020-06-14          East of England      4
## 107   2020-06-15          East of England      8
## 108   2020-06-16          East of England      3
## 109   2020-06-17          East of England      7
## 110   2020-06-18          East of England      4
## 111   2020-06-19          East of England      7
## 112   2020-06-20          East of England      4
## 113   2020-06-21          East of England      3
## 114   2020-06-22          East of England      6
## 115   2020-06-23          East of England      5
## 116   2020-06-24          East of England      4
## 117   2020-06-25          East of England      1
## 118   2020-06-26          East of England      5
## 119   2020-06-27          East of England      6
## 120   2020-06-28          East of England      8
## 121   2020-06-29          East of England      4
## 122   2020-06-30          East of England      5
## 123   2020-07-01          East of England      2
## 124   2020-07-02          East of England      5
## 125   2020-07-03          East of England      0
## 126   2020-07-04          East of England      3
## 127   2020-07-05          East of England      1
## 128   2020-07-06          East of England      2
## 129   2020-07-07          East of England      2
## 130   2020-07-08          East of England      0
## 131   2020-07-09          East of England      8
## 132   2020-07-10          East of England      4
## 133   2020-07-11          East of England      2
## 134   2020-07-12          East of England      1
## 135   2020-07-13          East of England      8
## 136   2020-07-14          East of England      2
## 137   2020-07-15          East of England      0
## 138   2020-07-16          East of England      0
## 139   2020-07-17          East of England      0
## 140   2020-07-18          East of England      0
## 141   2020-07-19          East of England      1
## 142   2020-07-20          East of England      1
## 143   2020-07-21          East of England      1
## 144   2020-07-22          East of England      2
## 145   2020-07-23          East of England      1
## 146   2020-07-24          East of England      1
## 147   2020-07-25          East of England      0
## 148   2020-07-26          East of England      1
## 149   2020-07-27          East of England      1
## 150   2020-07-28          East of England      2
## 151   2020-07-29          East of England      0
## 152   2020-07-30          East of England      0
## 153   2020-07-31          East of England      1
## 154   2020-08-01          East of England      0
## 155   2020-08-02          East of England      0
## 156   2020-08-03          East of England      0
## 157   2020-08-04          East of England      1
## 158   2020-08-05          East of England      1
## 159   2020-08-06          East of England      0
## 160   2020-08-07          East of England      1
## 161   2020-08-08          East of England      0
## 162   2020-08-09          East of England      0
## 163   2020-08-10          East of England      1
## 164   2020-08-11          East of England      2
## 165   2020-08-12          East of England      1
## 166   2020-08-13          East of England      0
## 167   2020-08-14          East of England      1
## 168   2020-08-15          East of England      1
## 169   2020-08-16          East of England      0
## 170   2020-08-17          East of England      0
## 171   2020-08-18          East of England      2
## 172   2020-08-19          East of England      1
## 173   2020-08-20          East of England      1
## 174   2020-08-21          East of England      0
## 175   2020-08-22          East of England      1
## 176   2020-08-23          East of England      1
## 177   2020-08-24          East of England      0
## 178   2020-08-25          East of England      0
## 179   2020-08-26          East of England      1
## 180   2020-08-27          East of England      1
## 181   2020-08-28          East of England      0
## 182   2020-08-29          East of England      0
## 183   2020-08-30          East of England      0
## 184   2020-08-31          East of England      0
## 185   2020-09-01          East of England      0
## 186   2020-09-02          East of England      0
## 187   2020-09-03          East of England      1
## 188   2020-09-04          East of England      1
## 189   2020-09-05          East of England      0
## 190   2020-09-06          East of England      1
## 191   2020-09-07          East of England      0
## 192   2020-09-08          East of England      0
## 193   2020-09-09          East of England      0
## 194   2020-09-10          East of England      0
## 195   2020-09-11          East of England      0
## 196   2020-09-12          East of England      0
## 197   2020-09-13          East of England      1
## 198   2020-09-14          East of England      1
## 199   2020-09-15          East of England      0
## 200   2020-09-16          East of England      0
## 201   2020-09-17          East of England      0
## 202   2020-09-18          East of England      0
## 203   2020-09-19          East of England      0
## 204   2020-09-20          East of England      2
## 205   2020-09-21          East of England      0
## 206   2020-09-22          East of England      2
## 207   2020-09-23          East of England      1
## 208   2020-09-24          East of England      0
## 209   2020-09-25          East of England      1
## 210   2020-09-26          East of England      1
## 211   2020-09-27          East of England      1
## 212   2020-09-28          East of England      2
## 213   2020-09-29          East of England      2
## 214   2020-09-30          East of England      2
## 215   2020-10-01          East of England      2
## 216   2020-10-02          East of England      1
## 217   2020-10-03          East of England      1
## 218   2020-10-04          East of England      0
## 219   2020-10-05          East of England      0
## 220   2020-10-06          East of England      4
## 221   2020-10-07          East of England      6
## 222   2020-10-08          East of England      3
## 223   2020-10-09          East of England      1
## 224   2020-10-10          East of England      6
## 225   2020-10-11          East of England      2
## 226   2020-10-12          East of England      2
## 227   2020-10-13          East of England      1
## 228   2020-10-14          East of England      3
## 229   2020-10-15          East of England      4
## 230   2020-10-16          East of England      5
## 231   2020-10-17          East of England      6
## 232   2020-10-18          East of England      7
## 233   2020-10-19          East of England      5
## 234   2020-10-20          East of England      9
## 235   2020-10-21          East of England      7
## 236   2020-10-22          East of England      7
## 237   2020-10-23          East of England     14
## 238   2020-10-24          East of England      1
## 239   2020-10-25          East of England     10
## 240   2020-10-26          East of England     10
## 241   2020-10-27          East of England      8
## 242   2020-10-28          East of England     12
## 243   2020-10-29          East of England     10
## 244   2020-10-30          East of England     12
## 245   2020-10-31          East of England     15
## 246   2020-11-01          East of England     14
## 247   2020-11-02          East of England      9
## 248   2020-11-03          East of England     14
## 249   2020-11-04          East of England     11
## 250   2020-11-05          East of England     12
## 251   2020-11-06          East of England     18
## 252   2020-11-07          East of England     10
## 253   2020-11-08          East of England     13
## 254   2020-11-09          East of England     16
## 255   2020-11-10          East of England     26
## 256   2020-11-11          East of England     14
## 257   2020-11-12          East of England     14
## 258   2020-11-13          East of England     21
## 259   2020-11-14          East of England     19
## 260   2020-11-15          East of England     13
## 261   2020-11-16          East of England     11
## 262   2020-11-17          East of England     17
## 263   2020-11-18          East of England     19
## 264   2020-11-19          East of England     23
## 265   2020-11-20          East of England     24
## 266   2020-11-21          East of England     19
## 267   2020-11-22          East of England     21
## 268   2020-11-23          East of England     18
## 269   2020-11-24          East of England     21
## 270   2020-11-25          East of England     19
## 271   2020-11-26          East of England     19
## 272   2020-11-27          East of England     14
## 273   2020-11-28          East of England     28
## 274   2020-11-29          East of England     19
## 275   2020-11-30          East of England     22
## 276   2020-12-01          East of England     25
## 277   2020-12-02          East of England     18
## 278   2020-12-03          East of England     24
## 279   2020-12-04          East of England     25
## 280   2020-12-05          East of England     25
## 281   2020-12-06          East of England     21
## 282   2020-12-07          East of England     16
## 283   2020-12-08          East of England     26
## 284   2020-12-09          East of England     19
## 285   2020-12-10          East of England     32
## 286   2020-12-11          East of England     32
## 287   2020-12-12          East of England     27
## 288   2020-12-13          East of England     25
## 289   2020-12-14          East of England     32
## 290   2020-12-15          East of England     35
## 291   2020-12-16          East of England     29
## 292   2020-12-17          East of England     42
## 293   2020-12-18          East of England     44
## 294   2020-12-19          East of England     54
## 295   2020-12-20          East of England     51
## 296   2020-12-21          East of England     66
## 297   2020-12-22          East of England     52
## 298   2020-12-23          East of England     61
## 299   2020-12-24          East of England     60
## 300   2020-12-25          East of England     57
## 301   2020-12-26          East of England     62
## 302   2020-12-27          East of England     53
## 303   2020-12-28          East of England     71
## 304   2020-12-29          East of England     53
## 305   2020-12-30          East of England     76
## 306   2020-12-31          East of England     82
## 307   2021-01-01          East of England     89
## 308   2021-01-02          East of England     66
## 309   2021-01-03          East of England     78
## 310   2021-01-04          East of England     87
## 311   2021-01-05          East of England    102
## 312   2021-01-06          East of England     99
## 313   2021-01-07          East of England    116
## 314   2021-01-08          East of England     94
## 315   2021-01-09          East of England    129
## 316   2021-01-10          East of England    121
## 317   2021-01-11          East of England    123
## 318   2021-01-12          East of England    128
## 319   2021-01-13          East of England    125
## 320   2021-01-14          East of England    123
## 321   2021-01-15          East of England    117
## 322   2021-01-16          East of England    128
## 323   2021-01-17          East of England    127
## 324   2021-01-18          East of England    119
## 325   2021-01-19          East of England    127
## 326   2021-01-20          East of England    145
## 327   2021-01-21          East of England    130
## 328   2021-01-22          East of England    118
## 329   2021-01-23          East of England    102
## 330   2021-01-24          East of England    100
## 331   2021-01-25          East of England    111
## 332   2021-01-26          East of England     86
## 333   2021-01-27          East of England     92
## 334   2021-01-28          East of England    109
## 335   2021-01-29          East of England     90
## 336   2021-01-30          East of England     82
## 337   2021-01-31          East of England     71
## 338   2021-02-01          East of England     61
## 339   2021-02-02          East of England     71
## 340   2021-02-03          East of England     77
## 341   2021-02-04          East of England     73
## 342   2021-02-05          East of England     64
## 343   2021-02-06          East of England     72
## 344   2021-02-07          East of England     60
## 345   2021-02-08          East of England     73
## 346   2021-02-09          East of England     59
## 347   2021-02-10          East of England     44
## 348   2021-02-11          East of England     29
## 349   2021-02-12          East of England      9
## 350   2020-03-01                   London      0
## 351   2020-03-02                   London      0
## 352   2020-03-03                   London      0
## 353   2020-03-04                   London      0
## 354   2020-03-05                   London      0
## 355   2020-03-06                   London      1
## 356   2020-03-07                   London      0
## 357   2020-03-08                   London      0
## 358   2020-03-09                   London      1
## 359   2020-03-10                   London      0
## 360   2020-03-11                   London      5
## 361   2020-03-12                   London      6
## 362   2020-03-13                   London     10
## 363   2020-03-14                   London     13
## 364   2020-03-15                   London      9
## 365   2020-03-16                   London     15
## 366   2020-03-17                   London     23
## 367   2020-03-18                   London     28
## 368   2020-03-19                   London     25
## 369   2020-03-20                   London     44
## 370   2020-03-21                   London     49
## 371   2020-03-22                   London     54
## 372   2020-03-23                   London     63
## 373   2020-03-24                   London     86
## 374   2020-03-25                   London    112
## 375   2020-03-26                   London    130
## 376   2020-03-27                   London    130
## 377   2020-03-28                   London    123
## 378   2020-03-29                   London    145
## 379   2020-03-30                   London    151
## 380   2020-03-31                   London    183
## 381   2020-04-01                   London    202
## 382   2020-04-02                   London    191
## 383   2020-04-03                   London    199
## 384   2020-04-04                   London    231
## 385   2020-04-05                   London    195
## 386   2020-04-06                   London    198
## 387   2020-04-07                   London    220
## 388   2020-04-08                   London    239
## 389   2020-04-09                   London    207
## 390   2020-04-10                   London    171
## 391   2020-04-11                   London    178
## 392   2020-04-12                   London    159
## 393   2020-04-13                   London    166
## 394   2020-04-14                   London    143
## 395   2020-04-15                   London    143
## 396   2020-04-16                   London    140
## 397   2020-04-17                   London    101
## 398   2020-04-18                   London    101
## 399   2020-04-19                   London    103
## 400   2020-04-20                   London     96
## 401   2020-04-21                   London     96
## 402   2020-04-22                   London    109
## 403   2020-04-23                   London     77
## 404   2020-04-24                   London     71
## 405   2020-04-25                   London     58
## 406   2020-04-26                   London     53
## 407   2020-04-27                   London     52
## 408   2020-04-28                   London     44
## 409   2020-04-29                   London     45
## 410   2020-04-30                   London     40
## 411   2020-05-01                   London     41
## 412   2020-05-02                   London     41
## 413   2020-05-03                   London     36
## 414   2020-05-04                   London     30
## 415   2020-05-05                   London     25
## 416   2020-05-06                   London     37
## 417   2020-05-07                   London     37
## 418   2020-05-08                   London     31
## 419   2020-05-09                   London     23
## 420   2020-05-10                   London     26
## 421   2020-05-11                   London     18
## 422   2020-05-12                   London     18
## 423   2020-05-13                   London     17
## 424   2020-05-14                   London     20
## 425   2020-05-15                   London     19
## 426   2020-05-16                   London     14
## 427   2020-05-17                   London     16
## 428   2020-05-18                   London     11
## 429   2020-05-19                   London     14
## 430   2020-05-20                   London     19
## 431   2020-05-21                   London     12
## 432   2020-05-22                   London     10
## 433   2020-05-23                   London      6
## 434   2020-05-24                   London      7
## 435   2020-05-25                   London      9
## 436   2020-05-26                   London     14
## 437   2020-05-27                   London      7
## 438   2020-05-28                   London      8
## 439   2020-05-29                   London      7
## 440   2020-05-30                   London     12
## 441   2020-05-31                   London      6
## 442   2020-06-01                   London     10
## 443   2020-06-02                   London      8
## 444   2020-06-03                   London      6
## 445   2020-06-04                   London      8
## 446   2020-06-05                   London      4
## 447   2020-06-06                   London      0
## 448   2020-06-07                   London      5
## 449   2020-06-08                   London      5
## 450   2020-06-09                   London      5
## 451   2020-06-10                   London      8
## 452   2020-06-11                   London      5
## 453   2020-06-12                   London      3
## 454   2020-06-13                   London      3
## 455   2020-06-14                   London      3
## 456   2020-06-15                   London      1
## 457   2020-06-16                   London      2
## 458   2020-06-17                   London      1
## 459   2020-06-18                   London      2
## 460   2020-06-19                   London      5
## 461   2020-06-20                   London      3
## 462   2020-06-21                   London      4
## 463   2020-06-22                   London      2
## 464   2020-06-23                   London      1
## 465   2020-06-24                   London      4
## 466   2020-06-25                   London      3
## 467   2020-06-26                   London      2
## 468   2020-06-27                   London      1
## 469   2020-06-28                   London      2
## 470   2020-06-29                   London      2
## 471   2020-06-30                   London      1
## 472   2020-07-01                   London      3
## 473   2020-07-02                   London      2
## 474   2020-07-03                   London      2
## 475   2020-07-04                   London      1
## 476   2020-07-05                   London      3
## 477   2020-07-06                   London      2
## 478   2020-07-07                   London      1
## 479   2020-07-08                   London      3
## 480   2020-07-09                   London      4
## 481   2020-07-10                   London      0
## 482   2020-07-11                   London      1
## 483   2020-07-12                   London      1
## 484   2020-07-13                   London      1
## 485   2020-07-14                   London      0
## 486   2020-07-15                   London      2
## 487   2020-07-16                   London      0
## 488   2020-07-17                   London      0
## 489   2020-07-18                   London      2
## 490   2020-07-19                   London      0
## 491   2020-07-20                   London      0
## 492   2020-07-21                   London      1
## 493   2020-07-22                   London      0
## 494   2020-07-23                   London      2
## 495   2020-07-24                   London      0
## 496   2020-07-25                   London      1
## 497   2020-07-26                   London      0
## 498   2020-07-27                   London      1
## 499   2020-07-28                   London      0
## 500   2020-07-29                   London      0
## 501   2020-07-30                   London      1
## 502   2020-07-31                   London      0
## 503   2020-08-01                   London      0
## 504   2020-08-02                   London      3
## 505   2020-08-03                   London      0
## 506   2020-08-04                   London      0
## 507   2020-08-05                   London      0
## 508   2020-08-06                   London      1
## 509   2020-08-07                   London      0
## 510   2020-08-08                   London      0
## 511   2020-08-09                   London      0
## 512   2020-08-10                   London      0
## 513   2020-08-11                   London      1
## 514   2020-08-12                   London      0
## 515   2020-08-13                   London      2
## 516   2020-08-14                   London      0
## 517   2020-08-15                   London      0
## 518   2020-08-16                   London      0
## 519   2020-08-17                   London      1
## 520   2020-08-18                   London      1
## 521   2020-08-19                   London      0
## 522   2020-08-20                   London      1
## 523   2020-08-21                   London      0
## 524   2020-08-22                   London      0
## 525   2020-08-23                   London      0
## 526   2020-08-24                   London      1
## 527   2020-08-25                   London      1
## 528   2020-08-26                   London      0
## 529   2020-08-27                   London      0
## 530   2020-08-28                   London      0
## 531   2020-08-29                   London      0
## 532   2020-08-30                   London      0
## 533   2020-08-31                   London      1
## 534   2020-09-01                   London      0
## 535   2020-09-02                   London      1
## 536   2020-09-03                   London      1
## 537   2020-09-04                   London      0
## 538   2020-09-05                   London      0
## 539   2020-09-06                   London      2
## 540   2020-09-07                   London      0
## 541   2020-09-08                   London      0
## 542   2020-09-09                   London      0
## 543   2020-09-10                   London      2
## 544   2020-09-11                   London      1
## 545   2020-09-12                   London      1
## 546   2020-09-13                   London      0
## 547   2020-09-14                   London      0
## 548   2020-09-15                   London      1
## 549   2020-09-16                   London      2
## 550   2020-09-17                   London      2
## 551   2020-09-18                   London      1
## 552   2020-09-19                   London      3
## 553   2020-09-20                   London      3
## 554   2020-09-21                   London      2
## 555   2020-09-22                   London      6
## 556   2020-09-23                   London      4
## 557   2020-09-24                   London      3
## 558   2020-09-25                   London      1
## 559   2020-09-26                   London      1
## 560   2020-09-27                   London      1
## 561   2020-09-28                   London      3
## 562   2020-09-29                   London      7
## 563   2020-09-30                   London      6
## 564   2020-10-01                   London      4
## 565   2020-10-02                   London      1
## 566   2020-10-03                   London      3
## 567   2020-10-04                   London      2
## 568   2020-10-05                   London      7
## 569   2020-10-06                   London      4
## 570   2020-10-07                   London      6
## 571   2020-10-08                   London      6
## 572   2020-10-09                   London      7
## 573   2020-10-10                   London      3
## 574   2020-10-11                   London      5
## 575   2020-10-12                   London      7
## 576   2020-10-13                   London      4
## 577   2020-10-14                   London      6
## 578   2020-10-15                   London     13
## 579   2020-10-16                   London      6
## 580   2020-10-17                   London      2
## 581   2020-10-18                   London      5
## 582   2020-10-19                   London     11
## 583   2020-10-20                   London      8
## 584   2020-10-21                   London     14
## 585   2020-10-22                   London     12
## 586   2020-10-23                   London      7
## 587   2020-10-24                   London     18
## 588   2020-10-25                   London     10
## 589   2020-10-26                   London     10
## 590   2020-10-27                   London     12
## 591   2020-10-28                   London     23
## 592   2020-10-29                   London     14
## 593   2020-10-30                   London     17
## 594   2020-10-31                   London      7
## 595   2020-11-01                   London     17
## 596   2020-11-02                   London     16
## 597   2020-11-03                   London     10
## 598   2020-11-04                   London     18
## 599   2020-11-05                   London     17
## 600   2020-11-06                   London     12
## 601   2020-11-07                   London     21
## 602   2020-11-08                   London     15
## 603   2020-11-09                   London     28
## 604   2020-11-10                   London     14
## 605   2020-11-11                   London     15
## 606   2020-11-12                   London     16
## 607   2020-11-13                   London     14
## 608   2020-11-14                   London     21
## 609   2020-11-15                   London     18
## 610   2020-11-16                   London     29
## 611   2020-11-17                   London     29
## 612   2020-11-18                   London     23
## 613   2020-11-19                   London     24
## 614   2020-11-20                   London     20
## 615   2020-11-21                   London     19
## 616   2020-11-22                   London     29
## 617   2020-11-23                   London     19
## 618   2020-11-24                   London     27
## 619   2020-11-25                   London     30
## 620   2020-11-26                   London     25
## 621   2020-11-27                   London     28
## 622   2020-11-28                   London     23
## 623   2020-11-29                   London     40
## 624   2020-11-30                   London     19
## 625   2020-12-01                   London     28
## 626   2020-12-02                   London     30
## 627   2020-12-03                   London     27
## 628   2020-12-04                   London     30
## 629   2020-12-05                   London     26
## 630   2020-12-06                   London     25
## 631   2020-12-07                   London     29
## 632   2020-12-08                   London     35
## 633   2020-12-09                   London     28
## 634   2020-12-10                   London     31
## 635   2020-12-11                   London     27
## 636   2020-12-12                   London     33
## 637   2020-12-13                   London     33
## 638   2020-12-14                   London     38
## 639   2020-12-15                   London     49
## 640   2020-12-16                   London     36
## 641   2020-12-17                   London     57
## 642   2020-12-18                   London     43
## 643   2020-12-19                   London     40
## 644   2020-12-20                   London     53
## 645   2020-12-21                   London     60
## 646   2020-12-22                   London     59
## 647   2020-12-23                   London     57
## 648   2020-12-24                   London     65
## 649   2020-12-25                   London     82
## 650   2020-12-26                   London     82
## 651   2020-12-27                   London     92
## 652   2020-12-28                   London     89
## 653   2020-12-29                   London    110
## 654   2020-12-30                   London     99
## 655   2020-12-31                   London    109
## 656   2021-01-01                   London    114
## 657   2021-01-02                   London    126
## 658   2021-01-03                   London    106
## 659   2021-01-04                   London    148
## 660   2021-01-05                   London    145
## 661   2021-01-06                   London    146
## 662   2021-01-07                   London    157
## 663   2021-01-08                   London    138
## 664   2021-01-09                   London    146
## 665   2021-01-10                   London    160
## 666   2021-01-11                   London    158
## 667   2021-01-12                   London    170
## 668   2021-01-13                   London    165
## 669   2021-01-14                   London    154
## 670   2021-01-15                   London    144
## 671   2021-01-16                   London    158
## 672   2021-01-17                   London    168
## 673   2021-01-18                   London    182
## 674   2021-01-19                   London    180
## 675   2021-01-20                   London    155
## 676   2021-01-21                   London    178
## 677   2021-01-22                   London    137
## 678   2021-01-23                   London    140
## 679   2021-01-24                   London    128
## 680   2021-01-25                   London    125
## 681   2021-01-26                   London    118
## 682   2021-01-27                   London    111
## 683   2021-01-28                   London    108
## 684   2021-01-29                   London     94
## 685   2021-01-30                   London     88
## 686   2021-01-31                   London     89
## 687   2021-02-01                   London     77
## 688   2021-02-02                   London     99
## 689   2021-02-03                   London    106
## 690   2021-02-04                   London     62
## 691   2021-02-05                   London     85
## 692   2021-02-06                   London     60
## 693   2021-02-07                   London     67
## 694   2021-02-08                   London     60
## 695   2021-02-09                   London     49
## 696   2021-02-10                   London     45
## 697   2021-02-11                   London     26
## 698   2021-02-12                   London      6
## 699   2020-03-01                 Midlands      0
## 700   2020-03-02                 Midlands      0
## 701   2020-03-03                 Midlands      1
## 702   2020-03-04                 Midlands      0
## 703   2020-03-05                 Midlands      0
## 704   2020-03-06                 Midlands      0
## 705   2020-03-07                 Midlands      0
## 706   2020-03-08                 Midlands      2
## 707   2020-03-09                 Midlands      1
## 708   2020-03-10                 Midlands      0
## 709   2020-03-11                 Midlands      2
## 710   2020-03-12                 Midlands      6
## 711   2020-03-13                 Midlands      5
## 712   2020-03-14                 Midlands      4
## 713   2020-03-15                 Midlands      5
## 714   2020-03-16                 Midlands     11
## 715   2020-03-17                 Midlands      8
## 716   2020-03-18                 Midlands     13
## 717   2020-03-19                 Midlands      8
## 718   2020-03-20                 Midlands     28
## 719   2020-03-21                 Midlands     13
## 720   2020-03-22                 Midlands     31
## 721   2020-03-23                 Midlands     33
## 722   2020-03-24                 Midlands     41
## 723   2020-03-25                 Midlands     48
## 724   2020-03-26                 Midlands     64
## 725   2020-03-27                 Midlands     72
## 726   2020-03-28                 Midlands     89
## 727   2020-03-29                 Midlands     92
## 728   2020-03-30                 Midlands     90
## 729   2020-03-31                 Midlands    123
## 730   2020-04-01                 Midlands    140
## 731   2020-04-02                 Midlands    142
## 732   2020-04-03                 Midlands    124
## 733   2020-04-04                 Midlands    151
## 734   2020-04-05                 Midlands    164
## 735   2020-04-06                 Midlands    140
## 736   2020-04-07                 Midlands    123
## 737   2020-04-08                 Midlands    186
## 738   2020-04-09                 Midlands    140
## 739   2020-04-10                 Midlands    127
## 740   2020-04-11                 Midlands    142
## 741   2020-04-12                 Midlands    139
## 742   2020-04-13                 Midlands    120
## 743   2020-04-14                 Midlands    116
## 744   2020-04-15                 Midlands    147
## 745   2020-04-16                 Midlands    102
## 746   2020-04-17                 Midlands    118
## 747   2020-04-18                 Midlands    115
## 748   2020-04-19                 Midlands     93
## 749   2020-04-20                 Midlands    107
## 750   2020-04-21                 Midlands     86
## 751   2020-04-22                 Midlands     78
## 752   2020-04-23                 Midlands    103
## 753   2020-04-24                 Midlands     79
## 754   2020-04-25                 Midlands     72
## 755   2020-04-26                 Midlands     81
## 756   2020-04-27                 Midlands     74
## 757   2020-04-28                 Midlands     68
## 758   2020-04-29                 Midlands     53
## 759   2020-04-30                 Midlands     56
## 760   2020-05-01                 Midlands     64
## 761   2020-05-02                 Midlands     51
## 762   2020-05-03                 Midlands     52
## 763   2020-05-04                 Midlands     61
## 764   2020-05-05                 Midlands     59
## 765   2020-05-06                 Midlands     59
## 766   2020-05-07                 Midlands     48
## 767   2020-05-08                 Midlands     34
## 768   2020-05-09                 Midlands     37
## 769   2020-05-10                 Midlands     42
## 770   2020-05-11                 Midlands     33
## 771   2020-05-12                 Midlands     45
## 772   2020-05-13                 Midlands     40
## 773   2020-05-14                 Midlands     39
## 774   2020-05-15                 Midlands     40
## 775   2020-05-16                 Midlands     34
## 776   2020-05-17                 Midlands     31
## 777   2020-05-18                 Midlands     36
## 778   2020-05-19                 Midlands     35
## 779   2020-05-20                 Midlands     36
## 780   2020-05-21                 Midlands     32
## 781   2020-05-22                 Midlands     27
## 782   2020-05-23                 Midlands     34
## 783   2020-05-24                 Midlands     20
## 784   2020-05-25                 Midlands     26
## 785   2020-05-26                 Midlands     33
## 786   2020-05-27                 Midlands     29
## 787   2020-05-28                 Midlands     28
## 788   2020-05-29                 Midlands     20
## 789   2020-05-30                 Midlands     21
## 790   2020-05-31                 Midlands     22
## 791   2020-06-01                 Midlands     20
## 792   2020-06-02                 Midlands     22
## 793   2020-06-03                 Midlands     24
## 794   2020-06-04                 Midlands     16
## 795   2020-06-05                 Midlands     21
## 796   2020-06-06                 Midlands     20
## 797   2020-06-07                 Midlands     17
## 798   2020-06-08                 Midlands     16
## 799   2020-06-09                 Midlands     18
## 800   2020-06-10                 Midlands     15
## 801   2020-06-11                 Midlands     13
## 802   2020-06-12                 Midlands     12
## 803   2020-06-13                 Midlands      6
## 804   2020-06-14                 Midlands     18
## 805   2020-06-15                 Midlands     12
## 806   2020-06-16                 Midlands     15
## 807   2020-06-17                 Midlands     11
## 808   2020-06-18                 Midlands     15
## 809   2020-06-19                 Midlands     10
## 810   2020-06-20                 Midlands     15
## 811   2020-06-21                 Midlands     14
## 812   2020-06-22                 Midlands     14
## 813   2020-06-23                 Midlands     16
## 814   2020-06-24                 Midlands     15
## 815   2020-06-25                 Midlands     18
## 816   2020-06-26                 Midlands      5
## 817   2020-06-27                 Midlands      5
## 818   2020-06-28                 Midlands      7
## 819   2020-06-29                 Midlands      6
## 820   2020-06-30                 Midlands      6
## 821   2020-07-01                 Midlands      7
## 822   2020-07-02                 Midlands     10
## 823   2020-07-03                 Midlands      3
## 824   2020-07-04                 Midlands      4
## 825   2020-07-05                 Midlands      6
## 826   2020-07-06                 Midlands      5
## 827   2020-07-07                 Midlands      3
## 828   2020-07-08                 Midlands      5
## 829   2020-07-09                 Midlands      9
## 830   2020-07-10                 Midlands      3
## 831   2020-07-11                 Midlands      0
## 832   2020-07-12                 Midlands      5
## 833   2020-07-13                 Midlands      1
## 834   2020-07-14                 Midlands      1
## 835   2020-07-15                 Midlands      6
## 836   2020-07-16                 Midlands      2
## 837   2020-07-17                 Midlands      3
## 838   2020-07-18                 Midlands      3
## 839   2020-07-19                 Midlands      3
## 840   2020-07-20                 Midlands      3
## 841   2020-07-21                 Midlands      1
## 842   2020-07-22                 Midlands      2
## 843   2020-07-23                 Midlands      6
## 844   2020-07-24                 Midlands      1
## 845   2020-07-25                 Midlands      4
## 846   2020-07-26                 Midlands      4
## 847   2020-07-27                 Midlands      5
## 848   2020-07-28                 Midlands      1
## 849   2020-07-29                 Midlands      1
## 850   2020-07-30                 Midlands      1
## 851   2020-07-31                 Midlands      2
## 852   2020-08-01                 Midlands      0
## 853   2020-08-02                 Midlands      1
## 854   2020-08-03                 Midlands      2
## 855   2020-08-04                 Midlands      1
## 856   2020-08-05                 Midlands      1
## 857   2020-08-06                 Midlands      0
## 858   2020-08-07                 Midlands      3
## 859   2020-08-08                 Midlands      2
## 860   2020-08-09                 Midlands      0
## 861   2020-08-10                 Midlands      0
## 862   2020-08-11                 Midlands      2
## 863   2020-08-12                 Midlands      0
## 864   2020-08-13                 Midlands      0
## 865   2020-08-14                 Midlands      0
## 866   2020-08-15                 Midlands      1
## 867   2020-08-16                 Midlands      0
## 868   2020-08-17                 Midlands      0
## 869   2020-08-18                 Midlands      0
## 870   2020-08-19                 Midlands      0
## 871   2020-08-20                 Midlands      0
## 872   2020-08-21                 Midlands      1
## 873   2020-08-22                 Midlands      0
## 874   2020-08-23                 Midlands      0
## 875   2020-08-24                 Midlands      0
## 876   2020-08-25                 Midlands      2
## 877   2020-08-26                 Midlands      3
## 878   2020-08-27                 Midlands      2
## 879   2020-08-28                 Midlands      1
## 880   2020-08-29                 Midlands      0
## 881   2020-08-30                 Midlands      2
## 882   2020-08-31                 Midlands      1
## 883   2020-09-01                 Midlands      0
## 884   2020-09-02                 Midlands      2
## 885   2020-09-03                 Midlands      0
## 886   2020-09-04                 Midlands      0
## 887   2020-09-05                 Midlands      0
## 888   2020-09-06                 Midlands      1
## 889   2020-09-07                 Midlands      1
## 890   2020-09-08                 Midlands      3
## 891   2020-09-09                 Midlands      0
## 892   2020-09-10                 Midlands      1
## 893   2020-09-11                 Midlands      1
## 894   2020-09-12                 Midlands      2
## 895   2020-09-13                 Midlands      4
## 896   2020-09-14                 Midlands      1
## 897   2020-09-15                 Midlands      2
## 898   2020-09-16                 Midlands      3
## 899   2020-09-17                 Midlands      2
## 900   2020-09-18                 Midlands      5
## 901   2020-09-19                 Midlands      2
## 902   2020-09-20                 Midlands      7
## 903   2020-09-21                 Midlands      3
## 904   2020-09-22                 Midlands      4
## 905   2020-09-23                 Midlands     10
## 906   2020-09-24                 Midlands      7
## 907   2020-09-25                 Midlands      4
## 908   2020-09-26                 Midlands      5
## 909   2020-09-27                 Midlands      9
## 910   2020-09-28                 Midlands      6
## 911   2020-09-29                 Midlands      4
## 912   2020-09-30                 Midlands      5
## 913   2020-10-01                 Midlands      8
## 914   2020-10-02                 Midlands      7
## 915   2020-10-03                 Midlands      6
## 916   2020-10-04                 Midlands      7
## 917   2020-10-05                 Midlands      6
## 918   2020-10-06                 Midlands      5
## 919   2020-10-07                 Midlands      9
## 920   2020-10-08                 Midlands      8
## 921   2020-10-09                 Midlands      7
## 922   2020-10-10                 Midlands      2
## 923   2020-10-11                 Midlands     15
## 924   2020-10-12                 Midlands      7
## 925   2020-10-13                 Midlands     16
## 926   2020-10-14                 Midlands     12
## 927   2020-10-15                 Midlands     11
## 928   2020-10-16                 Midlands     18
## 929   2020-10-17                 Midlands     25
## 930   2020-10-18                 Midlands     11
## 931   2020-10-19                 Midlands     14
## 932   2020-10-20                 Midlands     19
## 933   2020-10-21                 Midlands     15
## 934   2020-10-22                 Midlands     34
## 935   2020-10-23                 Midlands     32
## 936   2020-10-24                 Midlands     24
## 937   2020-10-25                 Midlands     30
## 938   2020-10-26                 Midlands     33
## 939   2020-10-27                 Midlands     38
## 940   2020-10-28                 Midlands     30
## 941   2020-10-29                 Midlands     42
## 942   2020-10-30                 Midlands     42
## 943   2020-10-31                 Midlands     50
## 944   2020-11-01                 Midlands     44
## 945   2020-11-02                 Midlands     58
## 946   2020-11-03                 Midlands     37
## 947   2020-11-04                 Midlands     67
## 948   2020-11-05                 Midlands     50
## 949   2020-11-06                 Midlands     43
## 950   2020-11-07                 Midlands     60
## 951   2020-11-08                 Midlands     55
## 952   2020-11-09                 Midlands     67
## 953   2020-11-10                 Midlands     68
## 954   2020-11-11                 Midlands     58
## 955   2020-11-12                 Midlands     64
## 956   2020-11-13                 Midlands     47
## 957   2020-11-14                 Midlands     66
## 958   2020-11-15                 Midlands     72
## 959   2020-11-16                 Midlands     66
## 960   2020-11-17                 Midlands     66
## 961   2020-11-18                 Midlands     83
## 962   2020-11-19                 Midlands     72
## 963   2020-11-20                 Midlands     87
## 964   2020-11-21                 Midlands     59
## 965   2020-11-22                 Midlands     84
## 966   2020-11-23                 Midlands     80
## 967   2020-11-24                 Midlands     73
## 968   2020-11-25                 Midlands     74
## 969   2020-11-26                 Midlands     77
## 970   2020-11-27                 Midlands     78
## 971   2020-11-28                 Midlands     80
## 972   2020-11-29                 Midlands     86
## 973   2020-11-30                 Midlands     79
## 974   2020-12-01                 Midlands     74
## 975   2020-12-02                 Midlands     64
## 976   2020-12-03                 Midlands     82
## 977   2020-12-04                 Midlands     67
## 978   2020-12-05                 Midlands     71
## 979   2020-12-06                 Midlands     75
## 980   2020-12-07                 Midlands     68
## 981   2020-12-08                 Midlands     66
## 982   2020-12-09                 Midlands     63
## 983   2020-12-10                 Midlands     75
## 984   2020-12-11                 Midlands     65
## 985   2020-12-12                 Midlands     81
## 986   2020-12-13                 Midlands     78
## 987   2020-12-14                 Midlands     77
## 988   2020-12-15                 Midlands     73
## 989   2020-12-16                 Midlands     73
## 990   2020-12-17                 Midlands     86
## 991   2020-12-18                 Midlands     80
## 992   2020-12-19                 Midlands     57
## 993   2020-12-20                 Midlands     66
## 994   2020-12-21                 Midlands     85
## 995   2020-12-22                 Midlands     74
## 996   2020-12-23                 Midlands     58
## 997   2020-12-24                 Midlands     67
## 998   2020-12-25                 Midlands     79
## 999   2020-12-26                 Midlands     74
## 1000  2020-12-27                 Midlands     87
## 1001  2020-12-28                 Midlands     64
## 1002  2020-12-29                 Midlands     82
## 1003  2020-12-30                 Midlands    100
## 1004  2020-12-31                 Midlands     89
## 1005  2021-01-01                 Midlands     77
## 1006  2021-01-02                 Midlands     74
## 1007  2021-01-03                 Midlands     71
## 1008  2021-01-04                 Midlands     93
## 1009  2021-01-05                 Midlands    104
## 1010  2021-01-06                 Midlands    111
## 1011  2021-01-07                 Midlands    103
## 1012  2021-01-08                 Midlands    131
## 1013  2021-01-09                 Midlands    137
## 1014  2021-01-10                 Midlands    119
## 1015  2021-01-11                 Midlands    142
## 1016  2021-01-12                 Midlands    158
## 1017  2021-01-13                 Midlands    140
## 1018  2021-01-14                 Midlands    155
## 1019  2021-01-15                 Midlands    130
## 1020  2021-01-16                 Midlands    150
## 1021  2021-01-17                 Midlands    154
## 1022  2021-01-18                 Midlands    158
## 1023  2021-01-19                 Midlands    156
## 1024  2021-01-20                 Midlands    143
## 1025  2021-01-21                 Midlands    154
## 1026  2021-01-22                 Midlands    158
## 1027  2021-01-23                 Midlands    141
## 1028  2021-01-24                 Midlands    163
## 1029  2021-01-25                 Midlands    154
## 1030  2021-01-26                 Midlands    138
## 1031  2021-01-27                 Midlands    136
## 1032  2021-01-28                 Midlands    133
## 1033  2021-01-29                 Midlands    141
## 1034  2021-01-30                 Midlands    120
## 1035  2021-01-31                 Midlands    106
## 1036  2021-02-01                 Midlands    133
## 1037  2021-02-02                 Midlands    131
## 1038  2021-02-03                 Midlands    130
## 1039  2021-02-04                 Midlands    108
## 1040  2021-02-05                 Midlands    106
## 1041  2021-02-06                 Midlands     89
## 1042  2021-02-07                 Midlands    103
## 1043  2021-02-08                 Midlands     98
## 1044  2021-02-09                 Midlands     92
## 1045  2021-02-10                 Midlands     86
## 1046  2021-02-11                 Midlands     72
## 1047  2021-02-12                 Midlands     13
## 1048  2020-03-01 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1049  2020-03-02 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1050  2020-03-03 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1051  2020-03-04 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1052  2020-03-05 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1053  2020-03-06 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1054  2020-03-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1055  2020-03-08 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1056  2020-03-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1057  2020-03-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1058  2020-03-11 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1059  2020-03-12 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1060  2020-03-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1061  2020-03-14 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1062  2020-03-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1063  2020-03-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1064  2020-03-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1065  2020-03-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1066  2020-03-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1067  2020-03-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1068  2020-03-21 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1069  2020-03-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1070  2020-03-23 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1071  2020-03-24 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1072  2020-03-25 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1073  2020-03-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1074  2020-03-27 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1075  2020-03-28 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1076  2020-03-29 North East and Yorkshire     38
## 1077  2020-03-30 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1078  2020-03-31 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1079  2020-04-01 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1080  2020-04-02 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1081  2020-04-03 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1082  2020-04-04 North East and Yorkshire    105
## 1083  2020-04-05 North East and Yorkshire     92
## 1084  2020-04-06 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1085  2020-04-07 North East and Yorkshire    102
## 1086  2020-04-08 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1087  2020-04-09 North East and Yorkshire    111
## 1088  2020-04-10 North East and Yorkshire    117
## 1089  2020-04-11 North East and Yorkshire     98
## 1090  2020-04-12 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1091  2020-04-13 North East and Yorkshire     94
## 1092  2020-04-14 North East and Yorkshire    107
## 1093  2020-04-15 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1094  2020-04-16 North East and Yorkshire    103
## 1095  2020-04-17 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1096  2020-04-18 North East and Yorkshire     95
## 1097  2020-04-19 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1098  2020-04-20 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1099  2020-04-21 North East and Yorkshire     76
## 1100  2020-04-22 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1101  2020-04-23 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1102  2020-04-24 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1103  2020-04-25 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1104  2020-04-26 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1105  2020-04-27 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1106  2020-04-28 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1107  2020-04-29 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1108  2020-04-30 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1109  2020-05-01 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1110  2020-05-02 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1111  2020-05-03 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1112  2020-05-04 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1113  2020-05-05 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1114  2020-05-06 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1115  2020-05-07 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1116  2020-05-08 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1117  2020-05-09 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1118  2020-05-10 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1119  2020-05-11 North East and Yorkshire     29
## 1120  2020-05-12 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1121  2020-05-13 North East and Yorkshire     28
## 1122  2020-05-14 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1123  2020-05-15 North East and Yorkshire     32
## 1124  2020-05-16 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1125  2020-05-17 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1126  2020-05-18 North East and Yorkshire     30
## 1127  2020-05-19 North East and Yorkshire     27
## 1128  2020-05-20 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1129  2020-05-21 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1130  2020-05-22 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1131  2020-05-23 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1132  2020-05-24 North East and Yorkshire     26
## 1133  2020-05-25 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1134  2020-05-26 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1135  2020-05-27 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1136  2020-05-28 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1137  2020-05-29 North East and Yorkshire     25
## 1138  2020-05-30 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1139  2020-05-31 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1140  2020-06-01 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1141  2020-06-02 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1142  2020-06-03 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1143  2020-06-04 North East and Yorkshire     17
## 1144  2020-06-05 North East and Yorkshire     18
## 1145  2020-06-06 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1146  2020-06-07 North East and Yorkshire     14
## 1147  2020-06-08 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1148  2020-06-09 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1149  2020-06-10 North East and Yorkshire     19
## 1150  2020-06-11 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1151  2020-06-12 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1152  2020-06-13 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1153  2020-06-14 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1154  2020-06-15 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1155  2020-06-16 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1156  2020-06-17 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1157  2020-06-18 North East and Yorkshire     11
## 1158  2020-06-19 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1159  2020-06-20 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1160  2020-06-21 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1161  2020-06-22 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1162  2020-06-23 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1163  2020-06-24 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1164  2020-06-25 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1165  2020-06-26 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1166  2020-06-27 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1167  2020-06-28 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1168  2020-06-29 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1169  2020-06-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1170  2020-07-01 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1171  2020-07-02 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1172  2020-07-03 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1173  2020-07-04 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1174  2020-07-05 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1175  2020-07-06 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1176  2020-07-07 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1177  2020-07-08 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1178  2020-07-09 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1179  2020-07-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1180  2020-07-11 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1181  2020-07-12 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1182  2020-07-13 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1183  2020-07-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1184  2020-07-15 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1185  2020-07-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1186  2020-07-17 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1187  2020-07-18 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1188  2020-07-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1189  2020-07-20 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1190  2020-07-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1191  2020-07-22 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1192  2020-07-23 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1193  2020-07-24 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1194  2020-07-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1195  2020-07-26 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1196  2020-07-27 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1197  2020-07-28 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1198  2020-07-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1199  2020-07-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1200  2020-07-31 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1201  2020-08-01 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1202  2020-08-02 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1203  2020-08-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1204  2020-08-04 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1205  2020-08-05 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1206  2020-08-06 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1207  2020-08-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1208  2020-08-08 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1209  2020-08-09 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1210  2020-08-10 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1211  2020-08-11 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1212  2020-08-12 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1213  2020-08-13 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1214  2020-08-14 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1215  2020-08-15 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1216  2020-08-16 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1217  2020-08-17 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1218  2020-08-18 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1219  2020-08-19 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1220  2020-08-20 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1221  2020-08-21 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1222  2020-08-22 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1223  2020-08-23 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1224  2020-08-24 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1225  2020-08-25 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1226  2020-08-26 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1227  2020-08-27 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1228  2020-08-28 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1229  2020-08-29 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1230  2020-08-30 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1231  2020-08-31 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1232  2020-09-01 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1233  2020-09-02 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1234  2020-09-03 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1235  2020-09-04 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1236  2020-09-05 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1237  2020-09-06 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1238  2020-09-07 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1239  2020-09-08 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1240  2020-09-09 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1241  2020-09-10 North East and Yorkshire      0
## 1242  2020-09-11 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1243  2020-09-12 North East and Yorkshire      1
## 1244  2020-09-13 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1245  2020-09-14 North East and Yorkshire      4
## 1246  2020-09-15 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1247  2020-09-16 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1248  2020-09-17 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1249  2020-09-18 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1250  2020-09-19 North East and Yorkshire      2
## 1251  2020-09-20 North East and Yorkshire      9
## 1252  2020-09-21 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1253  2020-09-22 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1254  2020-09-23 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1255  2020-09-24 North East and Yorkshire      3
## 1256  2020-09-25 North East and Yorkshire      5
## 1257  2020-09-26 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1258  2020-09-27 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1259  2020-09-28 North East and Yorkshire      6
## 1260  2020-09-29 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1261  2020-09-30 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1262  2020-10-01 North East and Yorkshire      8
## 1263  2020-10-02 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1264  2020-10-03 North East and Yorkshire     12
## 1265  2020-10-04 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1266  2020-10-05 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1267  2020-10-06 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1268  2020-10-07 North East and Yorkshire     13
## 1269  2020-10-08 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1270  2020-10-09 North East and Yorkshire     10
## 1271  2020-10-10 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1272  2020-10-11 North East and Yorkshire     16
## 1273  2020-10-12 North East and Yorkshire     15
## 1274  2020-10-13 North East and Yorkshire     21
## 1275  2020-10-14 North East and Yorkshire     20
## 1276  2020-10-15 North East and Yorkshire     23
## 1277  2020-10-16 North East and Yorkshire     24
## 1278  2020-10-17 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1279  2020-10-18 North East and Yorkshire     22
## 1280  2020-10-19 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1281  2020-10-20 North East and Yorkshire     37
## 1282  2020-10-21 North East and Yorkshire     43
## 1283  2020-10-22 North East and Yorkshire     33
## 1284  2020-10-23 North East and Yorkshire     31
## 1285  2020-10-24 North East and Yorkshire     34
## 1286  2020-10-25 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1287  2020-10-26 North East and Yorkshire     46
## 1288  2020-10-27 North East and Yorkshire     45
## 1289  2020-10-28 North East and Yorkshire     39
## 1290  2020-10-29 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1291  2020-10-30 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1292  2020-10-31 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1293  2020-11-01 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1294  2020-11-02 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1295  2020-11-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1296  2020-11-04 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1297  2020-11-05 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1298  2020-11-06 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1299  2020-11-07 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1300  2020-11-08 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1301  2020-11-09 North East and Yorkshire     87
## 1302  2020-11-10 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1303  2020-11-11 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1304  2020-11-12 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1305  2020-11-13 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1306  2020-11-14 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1307  2020-11-15 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1308  2020-11-16 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1309  2020-11-17 North East and Yorkshire     68
## 1310  2020-11-18 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1311  2020-11-19 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1312  2020-11-20 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1313  2020-11-21 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1314  2020-11-22 North East and Yorkshire     80
## 1315  2020-11-23 North East and Yorkshire     84
## 1316  2020-11-24 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1317  2020-11-25 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1318  2020-11-26 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1319  2020-11-27 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1320  2020-11-28 North East and Yorkshire     77
## 1321  2020-11-29 North East and Yorkshire     61
## 1322  2020-11-30 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1323  2020-12-01 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1324  2020-12-02 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1325  2020-12-03 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1326  2020-12-04 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1327  2020-12-05 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1328  2020-12-06 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1329  2020-12-07 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1330  2020-12-08 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1331  2020-12-09 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1332  2020-12-10 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1333  2020-12-11 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1334  2020-12-12 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1335  2020-12-13 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1336  2020-12-14 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1337  2020-12-15 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1338  2020-12-16 North East and Yorkshire     40
## 1339  2020-12-17 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1340  2020-12-18 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1341  2020-12-19 North East and Yorkshire     49
## 1342  2020-12-20 North East and Yorkshire     52
## 1343  2020-12-21 North East and Yorkshire     35
## 1344  2020-12-22 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1345  2020-12-23 North East and Yorkshire     59
## 1346  2020-12-24 North East and Yorkshire     50
## 1347  2020-12-25 North East and Yorkshire     56
## 1348  2020-12-26 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1349  2020-12-27 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1350  2020-12-28 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1351  2020-12-29 North East and Yorkshire     58
## 1352  2020-12-30 North East and Yorkshire     41
## 1353  2020-12-31 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1354  2021-01-01 North East and Yorkshire     70
## 1355  2021-01-02 North East and Yorkshire     57
## 1356  2021-01-03 North East and Yorkshire     48
## 1357  2021-01-04 North East and Yorkshire     63
## 1358  2021-01-05 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1359  2021-01-06 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1360  2021-01-07 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1361  2021-01-08 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1362  2021-01-09 North East and Yorkshire     53
## 1363  2021-01-10 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1364  2021-01-11 North East and Yorkshire     81
## 1365  2021-01-12 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1366  2021-01-13 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1367  2021-01-14 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1368  2021-01-15 North East and Yorkshire     90
## 1369  2021-01-16 North East and Yorkshire     96
## 1370  2021-01-17 North East and Yorkshire     71
## 1371  2021-01-18 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1372  2021-01-19 North East and Yorkshire    100
## 1373  2021-01-20 North East and Yorkshire     88
## 1374  2021-01-21 North East and Yorkshire     85
## 1375  2021-01-22 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1376  2021-01-23 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1377  2021-01-24 North East and Yorkshire     60
## 1378  2021-01-25 North East and Yorkshire     78
## 1379  2021-01-26 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1380  2021-01-27 North East and Yorkshire     62
## 1381  2021-01-28 North East and Yorkshire     67
## 1382  2021-01-29 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1383  2021-01-30 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1384  2021-01-31 North East and Yorkshire     73
## 1385  2021-02-01 North East and Yorkshire     72
## 1386  2021-02-02 North East and Yorkshire     65
## 1387  2021-02-03 North East and Yorkshire     75
## 1388  2021-02-04 North East and Yorkshire     64
## 1389  2021-02-05 North East and Yorkshire     69
## 1390  2021-02-06 North East and Yorkshire     51
## 1391  2021-02-07 North East and Yorkshire     54
## 1392  2021-02-08 North East and Yorkshire     47
## 1393  2021-02-09 North East and Yorkshire     42
## 1394  2021-02-10 North East and Yorkshire     55
## 1395  2021-02-11 North East and Yorkshire     44
## 1396  2021-02-12 North East and Yorkshire      7
## 1397  2020-03-01               North West      0
## 1398  2020-03-02               North West      0
## 1399  2020-03-03               North West      0
## 1400  2020-03-04               North West      0
## 1401  2020-03-05               North West      1
## 1402  2020-03-06               North West      0
## 1403  2020-03-07               North West      0
## 1404  2020-03-08               North West      1
## 1405  2020-03-09               North West      0
## 1406  2020-03-10               North West      0
## 1407  2020-03-11               North West      0
## 1408  2020-03-12               North West      2
## 1409  2020-03-13               North West      3
## 1410  2020-03-14               North West      1
## 1411  2020-03-15               North West      4
## 1412  2020-03-16               North West      2
## 1413  2020-03-17               North West      4
## 1414  2020-03-18               North West      6
## 1415  2020-03-19               North West      7
## 1416  2020-03-20               North West     10
## 1417  2020-03-21               North West     11
## 1418  2020-03-22               North West     13
## 1419  2020-03-23               North West     15
## 1420  2020-03-24               North West     21
## 1421  2020-03-25               North West     21
## 1422  2020-03-26               North West     29
## 1423  2020-03-27               North West     36
## 1424  2020-03-28               North West     28
## 1425  2020-03-29               North West     46
## 1426  2020-03-30               North West     67
## 1427  2020-03-31               North West     52
## 1428  2020-04-01               North West     86
## 1429  2020-04-02               North West     96
## 1430  2020-04-03               North West     95
## 1431  2020-04-04               North West     98
## 1432  2020-04-05               North West    102
## 1433  2020-04-06               North West    100
## 1434  2020-04-07               North West    136
## 1435  2020-04-08               North West    127
## 1436  2020-04-09               North West    119
## 1437  2020-04-10               North West    117
## 1438  2020-04-11               North West    138
## 1439  2020-04-12               North West    125
## 1440  2020-04-13               North West    130
## 1441  2020-04-14               North West    130
## 1442  2020-04-15               North West    114
## 1443  2020-04-16               North West    135
## 1444  2020-04-17               North West     98
## 1445  2020-04-18               North West    113
## 1446  2020-04-19               North West     71
## 1447  2020-04-20               North West     83
## 1448  2020-04-21               North West     76
## 1449  2020-04-22               North West     87
## 1450  2020-04-23               North West     85
## 1451  2020-04-24               North West     67
## 1452  2020-04-25               North West     67
## 1453  2020-04-26               North West     55
## 1454  2020-04-27               North West     54
## 1455  2020-04-28               North West     57
## 1456  2020-04-29               North West     64
## 1457  2020-04-30               North West     60
## 1458  2020-05-01               North West     45
## 1459  2020-05-02               North West     56
## 1460  2020-05-03               North West     55
## 1461  2020-05-04               North West     48
## 1462  2020-05-05               North West     49
## 1463  2020-05-06               North West     44
## 1464  2020-05-07               North West     50
## 1465  2020-05-08               North West     43
## 1466  2020-05-09               North West     31
## 1467  2020-05-10               North West     42
## 1468  2020-05-11               North West     35
## 1469  2020-05-12               North West     38
## 1470  2020-05-13               North West     25
## 1471  2020-05-14               North West     26
## 1472  2020-05-15               North West     33
## 1473  2020-05-16               North West     32
## 1474  2020-05-17               North West     24
## 1475  2020-05-18               North West     31
## 1476  2020-05-19               North West     35
## 1477  2020-05-20               North West     27
## 1478  2020-05-21               North West     28
## 1479  2020-05-22               North West     26
## 1480  2020-05-23               North West     31
## 1481  2020-05-24               North West     26
## 1482  2020-05-25               North West     31
## 1483  2020-05-26               North West     27
## 1484  2020-05-27               North West     27
## 1485  2020-05-28               North West     28
## 1486  2020-05-29               North West     20
## 1487  2020-05-30               North West     19
## 1488  2020-05-31               North West     13
## 1489  2020-06-01               North West     12
## 1490  2020-06-02               North West     27
## 1491  2020-06-03               North West     22
## 1492  2020-06-04               North West     22
## 1493  2020-06-05               North West     16
## 1494  2020-06-06               North West     26
## 1495  2020-06-07               North West     20
## 1496  2020-06-08               North West     23
## 1497  2020-06-09               North West     17
## 1498  2020-06-10               North West     16
## 1499  2020-06-11               North West     16
## 1500  2020-06-12               North West     11
## 1501  2020-06-13               North West     10
## 1502  2020-06-14               North West     15
## 1503  2020-06-15               North West     16
## 1504  2020-06-16               North West     16
## 1505  2020-06-17               North West     13
## 1506  2020-06-18               North West     14
## 1507  2020-06-19               North West      7
## 1508  2020-06-20               North West     11
## 1509  2020-06-21               North West      8
## 1510  2020-06-22               North West     11
## 1511  2020-06-23               North West     13
## 1512  2020-06-24               North West     13
## 1513  2020-06-25               North West     15
## 1514  2020-06-26               North West      6
## 1515  2020-06-27               North West      7
## 1516  2020-06-28               North West      9
## 1517  2020-06-29               North West      9
## 1518  2020-06-30               North West      7
## 1519  2020-07-01               North West      3
## 1520  2020-07-02               North West      6
## 1521  2020-07-03               North West      7
## 1522  2020-07-04               North West      4
## 1523  2020-07-05               North West      6
## 1524  2020-07-06               North West      9
## 1525  2020-07-07               North West      8
## 1526  2020-07-08               North West      5
## 1527  2020-07-09               North West     10
## 1528  2020-07-10               North West      2
## 1529  2020-07-11               North West      5
## 1530  2020-07-12               North West      0
## 1531  2020-07-13               North West      6
## 1532  2020-07-14               North West      4
## 1533  2020-07-15               North West      5
## 1534  2020-07-16               North West      2
## 1535  2020-07-17               North West      4
## 1536  2020-07-18               North West      5
## 1537  2020-07-19               North West      3
## 1538  2020-07-20               North West      0
## 1539  2020-07-21               North West      2
## 1540  2020-07-22               North West      3
## 1541  2020-07-23               North West      3
## 1542  2020-07-24               North West      1
## 1543  2020-07-25               North West      1
## 1544  2020-07-26               North West      3
## 1545  2020-07-27               North West      1
## 1546  2020-07-28               North West      1
## 1547  2020-07-29               North West      2
## 1548  2020-07-30               North West      2
## 1549  2020-07-31               North West      0
## 1550  2020-08-01               North West      2
## 1551  2020-08-02               North West      1
## 1552  2020-08-03               North West      8
## 1553  2020-08-04               North West      3
## 1554  2020-08-05               North West      2
## 1555  2020-08-06               North West      2
## 1556  2020-08-07               North West      2
## 1557  2020-08-08               North West      2
## 1558  2020-08-09               North West      3
## 1559  2020-08-10               North West      2
## 1560  2020-08-11               North West      3
## 1561  2020-08-12               North West      0
## 1562  2020-08-13               North West      2
## 1563  2020-08-14               North West      2
## 1564  2020-08-15               North West      6
## 1565  2020-08-16               North West      2
## 1566  2020-08-17               North West      1
## 1567  2020-08-18               North West      2
## 1568  2020-08-19               North West      1
## 1569  2020-08-20               North West      1
## 1570  2020-08-21               North West      4
## 1571  2020-08-22               North West      3
## 1572  2020-08-23               North West      5
## 1573  2020-08-24               North West      4
## 1574  2020-08-25               North West      3
## 1575  2020-08-26               North West      4
## 1576  2020-08-27               North West      1
## 1577  2020-08-28               North West      2
## 1578  2020-08-29               North West      0
## 1579  2020-08-30               North West      2
## 1580  2020-08-31               North West      3
## 1581  2020-09-01               North West      0
## 1582  2020-09-02               North West      2
## 1583  2020-09-03               North West      1
## 1584  2020-09-04               North West      3
## 1585  2020-09-05               North West      6
## 1586  2020-09-06               North West      1
## 1587  2020-09-07               North West      8
## 1588  2020-09-08               North West      6
## 1589  2020-09-09               North West      5
## 1590  2020-09-10               North West      5
## 1591  2020-09-11               North West      1
## 1592  2020-09-12               North West      4
## 1593  2020-09-13               North West      2
## 1594  2020-09-14               North West      4
## 1595  2020-09-15               North West      4
## 1596  2020-09-16               North West      6
## 1597  2020-09-17               North West      7
## 1598  2020-09-18               North West      6
## 1599  2020-09-19               North West      3
## 1600  2020-09-20               North West      2
## 1601  2020-09-21               North West      2
## 1602  2020-09-22               North West      9
## 1603  2020-09-23               North West     14
## 1604  2020-09-24               North West     10
## 1605  2020-09-25               North West      8
## 1606  2020-09-26               North West     14
## 1607  2020-09-27               North West     11
## 1608  2020-09-28               North West     15
## 1609  2020-09-29               North West     12
## 1610  2020-09-30               North West     17
## 1611  2020-10-01               North West     17
## 1612  2020-10-02               North West     20
## 1613  2020-10-03               North West     15
## 1614  2020-10-04               North West     15
## 1615  2020-10-05               North West     15
## 1616  2020-10-06               North West     20
## 1617  2020-10-07               North West     20
## 1618  2020-10-08               North West     22
## 1619  2020-10-09               North West     24
## 1620  2020-10-10               North West     31
## 1621  2020-10-11               North West     31
## 1622  2020-10-12               North West     35
## 1623  2020-10-13               North West     26
## 1624  2020-10-14               North West     35
## 1625  2020-10-15               North West     36
## 1626  2020-10-16               North West     34
## 1627  2020-10-17               North West     52
## 1628  2020-10-18               North West     40
## 1629  2020-10-19               North West     43
## 1630  2020-10-20               North West     48
## 1631  2020-10-21               North West     51
## 1632  2020-10-22               North West     49
## 1633  2020-10-23               North West     50
## 1634  2020-10-24               North West     51
## 1635  2020-10-25               North West     63
## 1636  2020-10-26               North West     53
## 1637  2020-10-27               North West     49
## 1638  2020-10-28               North West     57
## 1639  2020-10-29               North West     74
## 1640  2020-10-30               North West     73
## 1641  2020-10-31               North West     63
## 1642  2020-11-01               North West     76
## 1643  2020-11-02               North West     65
## 1644  2020-11-03               North West     76
## 1645  2020-11-04               North West     64
## 1646  2020-11-05               North West     67
## 1647  2020-11-06               North West     75
## 1648  2020-11-07               North West     79
## 1649  2020-11-08               North West     83
## 1650  2020-11-09               North West     82
## 1651  2020-11-10               North West     68
## 1652  2020-11-11               North West     61
## 1653  2020-11-12               North West     64
## 1654  2020-11-13               North West     81
## 1655  2020-11-14               North West     61
## 1656  2020-11-15               North West     75
## 1657  2020-11-16               North West     74
## 1658  2020-11-17               North West     73
## 1659  2020-11-18               North West     71
## 1660  2020-11-19               North West     67
## 1661  2020-11-20               North West     52
## 1662  2020-11-21               North West     68
## 1663  2020-11-22               North West     52
## 1664  2020-11-23               North West     54
## 1665  2020-11-24               North West     64
## 1666  2020-11-25               North West     65
## 1667  2020-11-26               North West     53
## 1668  2020-11-27               North West     51
## 1669  2020-11-28               North West     46
## 1670  2020-11-29               North West     54
## 1671  2020-11-30               North West     48
## 1672  2020-12-01               North West     53
## 1673  2020-12-02               North West     48
## 1674  2020-12-03               North West     46
## 1675  2020-12-04               North West     48
## 1676  2020-12-05               North West     37
## 1677  2020-12-06               North West     43
## 1678  2020-12-07               North West     50
## 1679  2020-12-08               North West     49
## 1680  2020-12-09               North West     48
## 1681  2020-12-10               North West     49
## 1682  2020-12-11               North West     41
## 1683  2020-12-12               North West     48
## 1684  2020-12-13               North West     41
## 1685  2020-12-14               North West     51
## 1686  2020-12-15               North West     34
## 1687  2020-12-16               North West     41
## 1688  2020-12-17               North West     26
## 1689  2020-12-18               North West     47
## 1690  2020-12-19               North West     45
## 1691  2020-12-20               North West     37
## 1692  2020-12-21               North West     51
## 1693  2020-12-22               North West     52
## 1694  2020-12-23               North West     50
## 1695  2020-12-24               North West     58
## 1696  2020-12-25               North West     52
## 1697  2020-12-26               North West     56
## 1698  2020-12-27               North West     50
## 1699  2020-12-28               North West     48
## 1700  2020-12-29               North West     49
## 1701  2020-12-30               North West     49
## 1702  2020-12-31               North West     62
## 1703  2021-01-01               North West     54
## 1704  2021-01-02               North West     55
## 1705  2021-01-03               North West     57
## 1706  2021-01-04               North West     50
## 1707  2021-01-05               North West     55
## 1708  2021-01-06               North West     67
## 1709  2021-01-07               North West     61
## 1710  2021-01-08               North West     63
## 1711  2021-01-09               North West     64
## 1712  2021-01-10               North West     64
## 1713  2021-01-11               North West     77
## 1714  2021-01-12               North West     58
## 1715  2021-01-13               North West     84
## 1716  2021-01-14               North West     91
## 1717  2021-01-15               North West     82
## 1718  2021-01-16               North West     81
## 1719  2021-01-17               North West     79
## 1720  2021-01-18               North West     92
## 1721  2021-01-19               North West     88
## 1722  2021-01-20               North West     85
## 1723  2021-01-21               North West     83
## 1724  2021-01-22               North West    105
## 1725  2021-01-23               North West     99
## 1726  2021-01-24               North West     91
## 1727  2021-01-25               North West     82
## 1728  2021-01-26               North West     96
## 1729  2021-01-27               North West    102
## 1730  2021-01-28               North West     96
## 1731  2021-01-29               North West     91
## 1732  2021-01-30               North West     70
## 1733  2021-01-31               North West     80
## 1734  2021-02-01               North West     93
## 1735  2021-02-02               North West     79
## 1736  2021-02-03               North West     64
## 1737  2021-02-04               North West     75
## 1738  2021-02-05               North West     62
## 1739  2021-02-06               North West     54
## 1740  2021-02-07               North West     50
## 1741  2021-02-08               North West     69
## 1742  2021-02-09               North West     57
## 1743  2021-02-10               North West     54
## 1744  2021-02-11               North West     29
## 1745  2021-02-12               North West     14
## 1746  2020-03-01               South East      0
## 1747  2020-03-02               South East      0
## 1748  2020-03-03               South East      1
## 1749  2020-03-04               South East      0
## 1750  2020-03-05               South East      1
## 1751  2020-03-06               South East      0
## 1752  2020-03-07               South East      0
## 1753  2020-03-08               South East      1
## 1754  2020-03-09               South East      1
## 1755  2020-03-10               South East      1
## 1756  2020-03-11               South East      1
## 1757  2020-03-12               South East      0
## 1758  2020-03-13               South East      1
## 1759  2020-03-14               South East      1
## 1760  2020-03-15               South East      5
## 1761  2020-03-16               South East      8
## 1762  2020-03-17               South East      7
## 1763  2020-03-18               South East     10
## 1764  2020-03-19               South East      9
## 1765  2020-03-20               South East     13
## 1766  2020-03-21               South East      7
## 1767  2020-03-22               South East     25
## 1768  2020-03-23               South East     20
## 1769  2020-03-24               South East     22
## 1770  2020-03-25               South East     29
## 1771  2020-03-26               South East     35
## 1772  2020-03-27               South East     36
## 1773  2020-03-28               South East     36
## 1774  2020-03-29               South East     55
## 1775  2020-03-30               South East     58
## 1776  2020-03-31               South East     65
## 1777  2020-04-01               South East     66
## 1778  2020-04-02               South East     55
## 1779  2020-04-03               South East     72
## 1780  2020-04-04               South East     80
## 1781  2020-04-05               South East     82
## 1782  2020-04-06               South East     88
## 1783  2020-04-07               South East    100
## 1784  2020-04-08               South East     83
## 1785  2020-04-09               South East    104
## 1786  2020-04-10               South East     88
## 1787  2020-04-11               South East     88
## 1788  2020-04-12               South East     88
## 1789  2020-04-13               South East     84
## 1790  2020-04-14               South East     65
## 1791  2020-04-15               South East     72
## 1792  2020-04-16               South East     56
## 1793  2020-04-17               South East     86
## 1794  2020-04-18               South East     57
## 1795  2020-04-19               South East     70
## 1796  2020-04-20               South East     87
## 1797  2020-04-21               South East     51
## 1798  2020-04-22               South East     54
## 1799  2020-04-23               South East     57
## 1800  2020-04-24               South East     64
## 1801  2020-04-25               South East     51
## 1802  2020-04-26               South East     51
## 1803  2020-04-27               South East     41
## 1804  2020-04-28               South East     40
## 1805  2020-04-29               South East     47
## 1806  2020-04-30               South East     29
## 1807  2020-05-01               South East     37
## 1808  2020-05-02               South East     36
## 1809  2020-05-03               South East     17
## 1810  2020-05-04               South East     35
## 1811  2020-05-05               South East     29
## 1812  2020-05-06               South East     25
## 1813  2020-05-07               South East     27
## 1814  2020-05-08               South East     26
## 1815  2020-05-09               South East     28
## 1816  2020-05-10               South East     19
## 1817  2020-05-11               South East     25
## 1818  2020-05-12               South East     27
## 1819  2020-05-13               South East     18
## 1820  2020-05-14               South East     32
## 1821  2020-05-15               South East     25
## 1822  2020-05-16               South East     22
## 1823  2020-05-17               South East     18
## 1824  2020-05-18               South East     23
## 1825  2020-05-19               South East     12
## 1826  2020-05-20               South East     22
## 1827  2020-05-21               South East     15
## 1828  2020-05-22               South East     17
## 1829  2020-05-23               South East     21
## 1830  2020-05-24               South East     17
## 1831  2020-05-25               South East     13
## 1832  2020-05-26               South East     19
## 1833  2020-05-27               South East     19
## 1834  2020-05-28               South East     12
## 1835  2020-05-29               South East     22
## 1836  2020-05-30               South East      8
## 1837  2020-05-31               South East     12
## 1838  2020-06-01               South East     11
## 1839  2020-06-02               South East     13
## 1840  2020-06-03               South East     18
## 1841  2020-06-04               South East     11
## 1842  2020-06-05               South East     11
## 1843  2020-06-06               South East     10
## 1844  2020-06-07               South East     12
## 1845  2020-06-08               South East      8
## 1846  2020-06-09               South East     11
## 1847  2020-06-10               South East     11
## 1848  2020-06-11               South East      5
## 1849  2020-06-12               South East      6
## 1850  2020-06-13               South East      7
## 1851  2020-06-14               South East      7
## 1852  2020-06-15               South East      8
## 1853  2020-06-16               South East     14
## 1854  2020-06-17               South East     10
## 1855  2020-06-18               South East      4
## 1856  2020-06-19               South East      7
## 1857  2020-06-20               South East      5
## 1858  2020-06-21               South East      3
## 1859  2020-06-22               South East      2
## 1860  2020-06-23               South East      9
## 1861  2020-06-24               South East      7
## 1862  2020-06-25               South East      5
## 1863  2020-06-26               South East      8
## 1864  2020-06-27               South East      9
## 1865  2020-06-28               South East      6
## 1866  2020-06-29               South East      5
## 1867  2020-06-30               South East      5
## 1868  2020-07-01               South East      2
## 1869  2020-07-02               South East      8
## 1870  2020-07-03               South East      3
## 1871  2020-07-04               South East      6
## 1872  2020-07-05               South East      5
## 1873  2020-07-06               South East      4
## 1874  2020-07-07               South East      6
## 1875  2020-07-08               South East      3
## 1876  2020-07-09               South East      7
## 1877  2020-07-10               South East      3
## 1878  2020-07-11               South East      4
## 1879  2020-07-12               South East      5
## 1880  2020-07-13               South East      5
## 1881  2020-07-14               South East      5
## 1882  2020-07-15               South East      6
## 1883  2020-07-16               South East      3
## 1884  2020-07-17               South East      1
## 1885  2020-07-18               South East      5
## 1886  2020-07-19               South East      2
## 1887  2020-07-20               South East      6
## 1888  2020-07-21               South East      4
## 1889  2020-07-22               South East      2
## 1890  2020-07-23               South East      3
## 1891  2020-07-24               South East      1
## 1892  2020-07-25               South East      1
## 1893  2020-07-26               South East      3
## 1894  2020-07-27               South East      1
## 1895  2020-07-28               South East      3
## 1896  2020-07-29               South East      2
## 1897  2020-07-30               South East      3
## 1898  2020-07-31               South East      1
## 1899  2020-08-01               South East      2
## 1900  2020-08-02               South East      4
## 1901  2020-08-03               South East      0
## 1902  2020-08-04               South East      0
## 1903  2020-08-05               South East      0
## 1904  2020-08-06               South East      2
## 1905  2020-08-07               South East      0
## 1906  2020-08-08               South East      2
## 1907  2020-08-09               South East      0
## 1908  2020-08-10               South East      2
## 1909  2020-08-11               South East      1
## 1910  2020-08-12               South East      1
## 1911  2020-08-13               South East      0
## 1912  2020-08-14               South East      0
## 1913  2020-08-15               South East      2
## 1914  2020-08-16               South East      1
## 1915  2020-08-17               South East      0
## 1916  2020-08-18               South East      2
## 1917  2020-08-19               South East      1
## 1918  2020-08-20               South East      0
## 1919  2020-08-21               South East      0
## 1920  2020-08-22               South East      0
## 1921  2020-08-23               South East      1
## 1922  2020-08-24               South East      0
## 1923  2020-08-25               South East      1
## 1924  2020-08-26               South East      0
## 1925  2020-08-27               South East      1
## 1926  2020-08-28               South East      2
## 1927  2020-08-29               South East      1
## 1928  2020-08-30               South East      0
## 1929  2020-08-31               South East      2
## 1930  2020-09-01               South East      1
## 1931  2020-09-02               South East      1
## 1932  2020-09-03               South East      0
## 1933  2020-09-04               South East      1
## 1934  2020-09-05               South East      0
## 1935  2020-09-06               South East      1
## 1936  2020-09-07               South East      0
## 1937  2020-09-08               South East      0
## 1938  2020-09-09               South East      0
## 1939  2020-09-10               South East      1
## 1940  2020-09-11               South East      1
## 1941  2020-09-12               South East      0
## 1942  2020-09-13               South East      3
## 1943  2020-09-14               South East      1
## 1944  2020-09-15               South East      2
## 1945  2020-09-16               South East      2
## 1946  2020-09-17               South East      3
## 1947  2020-09-18               South East      1
## 1948  2020-09-19               South East      1
## 1949  2020-09-20               South East      0
## 1950  2020-09-21               South East      3
## 1951  2020-09-22               South East      0
## 1952  2020-09-23               South East      2
## 1953  2020-09-24               South East      1
## 1954  2020-09-25               South East      3
## 1955  2020-09-26               South East      2
## 1956  2020-09-27               South East      2
## 1957  2020-09-28               South East      6
## 1958  2020-09-29               South East      3
## 1959  2020-09-30               South East      4
## 1960  2020-10-01               South East      4
## 1961  2020-10-02               South East      2
## 1962  2020-10-03               South East      1
## 1963  2020-10-04               South East      1
## 1964  2020-10-05               South East      2
## 1965  2020-10-06               South East      1
## 1966  2020-10-07               South East      4
## 1967  2020-10-08               South East      1
## 1968  2020-10-09               South East      1
## 1969  2020-10-10               South East      3
## 1970  2020-10-11               South East      3
## 1971  2020-10-12               South East      4
## 1972  2020-10-13               South East      2
## 1973  2020-10-14               South East      2
## 1974  2020-10-15               South East      3
## 1975  2020-10-16               South East      2
## 1976  2020-10-17               South East      3
## 1977  2020-10-18               South East      4
## 1978  2020-10-19               South East      7
## 1979  2020-10-20               South East      8
## 1980  2020-10-21               South East      9
## 1981  2020-10-22               South East      5
## 1982  2020-10-23               South East      7
## 1983  2020-10-24               South East      5
## 1984  2020-10-25               South East      9
## 1985  2020-10-26               South East     13
## 1986  2020-10-27               South East     10
## 1987  2020-10-28               South East     10
## 1988  2020-10-29               South East      7
## 1989  2020-10-30               South East      6
## 1990  2020-10-31               South East     15
## 1991  2020-11-01               South East     18
## 1992  2020-11-02               South East     13
## 1993  2020-11-03               South East     16
## 1994  2020-11-04               South East     10
## 1995  2020-11-05               South East     10
## 1996  2020-11-06               South East     16
## 1997  2020-11-07               South East     17
## 1998  2020-11-08               South East     18
## 1999  2020-11-09               South East     19
## 2000  2020-11-10               South East     20
## 2001  2020-11-11               South East     20
## 2002  2020-11-12               South East     20
## 2003  2020-11-13               South East     12
## 2004  2020-11-14               South East     24
## 2005  2020-11-15               South East     25
## 2006  2020-11-16               South East     22
## 2007  2020-11-17               South East     23
## 2008  2020-11-18               South East     26
## 2009  2020-11-19               South East     21
## 2010  2020-11-20               South East     18
## 2011  2020-11-21               South East     23
## 2012  2020-11-22               South East     30
## 2013  2020-11-23               South East     29
## 2014  2020-11-24               South East     26
## 2015  2020-11-25               South East     42
## 2016  2020-11-26               South East     30
## 2017  2020-11-27               South East     31
## 2018  2020-11-28               South East     24
## 2019  2020-11-29               South East     37
## 2020  2020-11-30               South East     23
## 2021  2020-12-01               South East     29
## 2022  2020-12-02               South East     33
## 2023  2020-12-03               South East     36
## 2024  2020-12-04               South East     41
## 2025  2020-12-05               South East     36
## 2026  2020-12-06               South East     32
## 2027  2020-12-07               South East     25
## 2028  2020-12-08               South East     43
## 2029  2020-12-09               South East     44
## 2030  2020-12-10               South East     38
## 2031  2020-12-11               South East     48
## 2032  2020-12-12               South East     40
## 2033  2020-12-13               South East     41
## 2034  2020-12-14               South East     38
## 2035  2020-12-15               South East     51
## 2036  2020-12-16               South East     45
## 2037  2020-12-17               South East     54
## 2038  2020-12-18               South East     48
## 2039  2020-12-19               South East     43
## 2040  2020-12-20               South East     57
## 2041  2020-12-21               South East     66
## 2042  2020-12-22               South East     62
## 2043  2020-12-23               South East     70
## 2044  2020-12-24               South East     56
## 2045  2020-12-25               South East     71
## 2046  2020-12-26               South East     75
## 2047  2020-12-27               South East     76
## 2048  2020-12-28               South East     81
## 2049  2020-12-29               South East     78
## 2050  2020-12-30               South East     92
## 2051  2020-12-31               South East     92
## 2052  2021-01-01               South East     60
## 2053  2021-01-02               South East     94
## 2054  2021-01-03               South East     79
## 2055  2021-01-04               South East    106
## 2056  2021-01-05               South East    107
## 2057  2021-01-06               South East    121
## 2058  2021-01-07               South East    116
## 2059  2021-01-08               South East    125
## 2060  2021-01-09               South East    115
## 2061  2021-01-10               South East    125
## 2062  2021-01-11               South East    128
## 2063  2021-01-12               South East    169
## 2064  2021-01-13               South East    133
## 2065  2021-01-14               South East    137
## 2066  2021-01-15               South East    125
## 2067  2021-01-16               South East    153
## 2068  2021-01-17               South East    165
## 2069  2021-01-18               South East    151
## 2070  2021-01-19               South East    154
## 2071  2021-01-20               South East    134
## 2072  2021-01-21               South East    132
## 2073  2021-01-22               South East    129
## 2074  2021-01-23               South East    121
## 2075  2021-01-24               South East    115
## 2076  2021-01-25               South East    112
## 2077  2021-01-26               South East    130
## 2078  2021-01-27               South East    111
## 2079  2021-01-28               South East    127
## 2080  2021-01-29               South East    107
## 2081  2021-01-30               South East     92
## 2082  2021-01-31               South East     93
## 2083  2021-02-01               South East     94
## 2084  2021-02-02               South East     81
## 2085  2021-02-03               South East     95
## 2086  2021-02-04               South East     58
## 2087  2021-02-05               South East     68
## 2088  2021-02-06               South East     73
## 2089  2021-02-07               South East     63
## 2090  2021-02-08               South East     65
## 2091  2021-02-09               South East     34
## 2092  2021-02-10               South East     40
## 2093  2021-02-11               South East     42
## 2094  2021-02-12               South East      7
## 2095  2020-03-01               South West      0
## 2096  2020-03-02               South West      0
## 2097  2020-03-03               South West      0
## 2098  2020-03-04               South West      0
## 2099  2020-03-05               South West      0
## 2100  2020-03-06               South West      0
## 2101  2020-03-07               South West      0
## 2102  2020-03-08               South West      0
## 2103  2020-03-09               South West      0
## 2104  2020-03-10               South West      0
## 2105  2020-03-11               South West      1
## 2106  2020-03-12               South West      0
## 2107  2020-03-13               South West      0
## 2108  2020-03-14               South West      1
## 2109  2020-03-15               South West      0
## 2110  2020-03-16               South West      0
## 2111  2020-03-17               South West      2
## 2112  2020-03-18               South West      2
## 2113  2020-03-19               South West      4
## 2114  2020-03-20               South West      3
## 2115  2020-03-21               South West      6
## 2116  2020-03-22               South West      7
## 2117  2020-03-23               South West      8
## 2118  2020-03-24               South West      7
## 2119  2020-03-25               South West      9
## 2120  2020-03-26               South West     11
## 2121  2020-03-27               South West     13
## 2122  2020-03-28               South West     21
## 2123  2020-03-29               South West     18
## 2124  2020-03-30               South West     23
## 2125  2020-03-31               South West     23
## 2126  2020-04-01               South West     21
## 2127  2020-04-02               South West     23
## 2128  2020-04-03               South West     30
## 2129  2020-04-04               South West     42
## 2130  2020-04-05               South West     32
## 2131  2020-04-06               South West     34
## 2132  2020-04-07               South West     39
## 2133  2020-04-08               South West     47
## 2134  2020-04-09               South West     24
## 2135  2020-04-10               South West     46
## 2136  2020-04-11               South West     43
## 2137  2020-04-12               South West     23
## 2138  2020-04-13               South West     27
## 2139  2020-04-14               South West     24
## 2140  2020-04-15               South West     32
## 2141  2020-04-16               South West     29
## 2142  2020-04-17               South West     33
## 2143  2020-04-18               South West     25
## 2144  2020-04-19               South West     31
## 2145  2020-04-20               South West     26
## 2146  2020-04-21               South West     26
## 2147  2020-04-22               South West     23
## 2148  2020-04-23               South West     17
## 2149  2020-04-24               South West     19
## 2150  2020-04-25               South West     15
## 2151  2020-04-26               South West     27
## 2152  2020-04-27               South West     13
## 2153  2020-04-28               South West     17
## 2154  2020-04-29               South West     15
## 2155  2020-04-30               South West     26
## 2156  2020-05-01               South West      6
## 2157  2020-05-02               South West      7
## 2158  2020-05-03               South West     10
## 2159  2020-05-04               South West     17
## 2160  2020-05-05               South West     14
## 2161  2020-05-06               South West     19
## 2162  2020-05-07               South West     16
## 2163  2020-05-08               South West      6
## 2164  2020-05-09               South West     11
## 2165  2020-05-10               South West      5
## 2166  2020-05-11               South West      8
## 2167  2020-05-12               South West      7
## 2168  2020-05-13               South West      7
## 2169  2020-05-14               South West      6
## 2170  2020-05-15               South West      4
## 2171  2020-05-16               South West      4
## 2172  2020-05-17               South West      6
## 2173  2020-05-18               South West      4
## 2174  2020-05-19               South West      6
## 2175  2020-05-20               South West      1
## 2176  2020-05-21               South West      9
## 2177  2020-05-22               South West      7
## 2178  2020-05-23               South West      6
## 2179  2020-05-24               South West      3
## 2180  2020-05-25               South West      8
## 2181  2020-05-26               South West     11
## 2182  2020-05-27               South West      5
## 2183  2020-05-28               South West     10
## 2184  2020-05-29               South West      7
## 2185  2020-05-30               South West      3
## 2186  2020-05-31               South West      2
## 2187  2020-06-01               South West      7
## 2188  2020-06-02               South West      2
## 2189  2020-06-03               South West      7
## 2190  2020-06-04               South West      2
## 2191  2020-06-05               South West      2
## 2192  2020-06-06               South West      1
## 2193  2020-06-07               South West      3
## 2194  2020-06-08               South West      3
## 2195  2020-06-09               South West      0
## 2196  2020-06-10               South West      1
## 2197  2020-06-11               South West      2
## 2198  2020-06-12               South West      2
## 2199  2020-06-13               South West      2
## 2200  2020-06-14               South West      0
## 2201  2020-06-15               South West      2
## 2202  2020-06-16               South West      2
## 2203  2020-06-17               South West      0
## 2204  2020-06-18               South West      0
## 2205  2020-06-19               South West      0
## 2206  2020-06-20               South West      2
## 2207  2020-06-21               South West      0
## 2208  2020-06-22               South West      1
## 2209  2020-06-23               South West      1
## 2210  2020-06-24               South West      1
## 2211  2020-06-25               South West      0
## 2212  2020-06-26               South West      3
## 2213  2020-06-27               South West      0
## 2214  2020-06-28               South West      0
## 2215  2020-06-29               South West      1
## 2216  2020-06-30               South West      0
## 2217  2020-07-01               South West      0
## 2218  2020-07-02               South West      0
## 2219  2020-07-03               South West      0
## 2220  2020-07-04               South West      0
## 2221  2020-07-05               South West      1
## 2222  2020-07-06               South West      0
## 2223  2020-07-07               South West      0
## 2224  2020-07-08               South West      2
## 2225  2020-07-09               South West      0
## 2226  2020-07-10               South West      1
## 2227  2020-07-11               South West      0
## 2228  2020-07-12               South West      0
## 2229  2020-07-13               South West      1
## 2230  2020-07-14               South West      0
## 2231  2020-07-15               South West      0
## 2232  2020-07-16               South West      0
## 2233  2020-07-17               South West      1
## 2234  2020-07-18               South West      0
## 2235  2020-07-19               South West      0
## 2236  2020-07-20               South West      0
## 2237  2020-07-21               South West      0
## 2238  2020-07-22               South West      0
## 2239  2020-07-23               South West      0
## 2240  2020-07-24               South West      0
## 2241  2020-07-25               South West      0
## 2242  2020-07-26               South West      0
## 2243  2020-07-27               South West      0
## 2244  2020-07-28               South West      0
## 2245  2020-07-29               South West      0
## 2246  2020-07-30               South West      1
## 2247  2020-07-31               South West      0
## 2248  2020-08-01               South West      0
## 2249  2020-08-02               South West      0
## 2250  2020-08-03               South West      0
## 2251  2020-08-04               South West      0
## 2252  2020-08-05               South West      0
## 2253  2020-08-06               South West      0
## 2254  2020-08-07               South West      0
## 2255  2020-08-08               South West      0
## 2256  2020-08-09               South West      0
## 2257  2020-08-10               South West      0
## 2258  2020-08-11               South West      0
## 2259  2020-08-12               South West      0
## 2260  2020-08-13               South West      0
## 2261  2020-08-14               South West      1
## 2262  2020-08-15               South West      0
## 2263  2020-08-16               South West      0
## 2264  2020-08-17               South West      2
## 2265  2020-08-18               South West      0
## 2266  2020-08-19               South West      0
## 2267  2020-08-20               South West      0
## 2268  2020-08-21               South West      0
## 2269  2020-08-22               South West      0
## 2270  2020-08-23               South West      0
## 2271  2020-08-24               South West      0
## 2272  2020-08-25               South West      1
## 2273  2020-08-26               South West      0
## 2274  2020-08-27               South West      1
## 2275  2020-08-28               South West      0
## 2276  2020-08-29               South West      0
## 2277  2020-08-30               South West      0
## 2278  2020-08-31               South West      0
## 2279  2020-09-01               South West      0
## 2280  2020-09-02               South West      0
## 2281  2020-09-03               South West      0
## 2282  2020-09-04               South West      0
## 2283  2020-09-05               South West      0
## 2284  2020-09-06               South West      0
## 2285  2020-09-07               South West      0
## 2286  2020-09-08               South West      1
## 2287  2020-09-09               South West      0
## 2288  2020-09-10               South West      0
## 2289  2020-09-11               South West      0
## 2290  2020-09-12               South West      0
## 2291  2020-09-13               South West      1
## 2292  2020-09-14               South West      0
## 2293  2020-09-15               South West      0
## 2294  2020-09-16               South West      0
## 2295  2020-09-17               South West      1
## 2296  2020-09-18               South West      0
## 2297  2020-09-19               South West      0
## 2298  2020-09-20               South West      1
## 2299  2020-09-21               South West      0
## 2300  2020-09-22               South West      0
## 2301  2020-09-23               South West      0
## 2302  2020-09-24               South West      1
## 2303  2020-09-25               South West      0
## 2304  2020-09-26               South West      0
## 2305  2020-09-27               South West      0
## 2306  2020-09-28               South West      0
## 2307  2020-09-29               South West      0
## 2308  2020-09-30               South West      0
## 2309  2020-10-01               South West      0
## 2310  2020-10-02               South West      1
## 2311  2020-10-03               South West      0
## 2312  2020-10-04               South West      0
## 2313  2020-10-05               South West      0
## 2314  2020-10-06               South West      1
## 2315  2020-10-07               South West      0
## 2316  2020-10-08               South West      1
## 2317  2020-10-09               South West      1
## 2318  2020-10-10               South West      0
## 2319  2020-10-11               South West      4
## 2320  2020-10-12               South West      2
## 2321  2020-10-13               South West      0
## 2322  2020-10-14               South West      3
## 2323  2020-10-15               South West      1
## 2324  2020-10-16               South West      2
## 2325  2020-10-17               South West      8
## 2326  2020-10-18               South West      2
## 2327  2020-10-19               South West      2
## 2328  2020-10-20               South West      3
## 2329  2020-10-21               South West      6
## 2330  2020-10-22               South West      6
## 2331  2020-10-23               South West      5
## 2332  2020-10-24               South West      5
## 2333  2020-10-25               South West      5
## 2334  2020-10-26               South West      7
## 2335  2020-10-27               South West      6
## 2336  2020-10-28               South West      8
## 2337  2020-10-29               South West     11
## 2338  2020-10-30               South West      8
## 2339  2020-10-31               South West      4
## 2340  2020-11-01               South West      5
## 2341  2020-11-02               South West     11
## 2342  2020-11-03               South West      7
## 2343  2020-11-04               South West      8
## 2344  2020-11-05               South West      5
## 2345  2020-11-06               South West     11
## 2346  2020-11-07               South West     10
## 2347  2020-11-08               South West     10
## 2348  2020-11-09               South West     12
## 2349  2020-11-10               South West      6
## 2350  2020-11-11               South West     13
## 2351  2020-11-12               South West     17
## 2352  2020-11-13               South West      9
## 2353  2020-11-14               South West      8
## 2354  2020-11-15               South West     16
## 2355  2020-11-16               South West     18
## 2356  2020-11-17               South West     17
## 2357  2020-11-18               South West     26
## 2358  2020-11-19               South West     15
## 2359  2020-11-20               South West     25
## 2360  2020-11-21               South West     25
## 2361  2020-11-22               South West     24
## 2362  2020-11-23               South West     14
## 2363  2020-11-24               South West     20
## 2364  2020-11-25               South West     25
## 2365  2020-11-26               South West     16
## 2366  2020-11-27               South West     21
## 2367  2020-11-28               South West     35
## 2368  2020-11-29               South West     15
## 2369  2020-11-30               South West     21
## 2370  2020-12-01               South West     19
## 2371  2020-12-02               South West     15
## 2372  2020-12-03               South West     14
## 2373  2020-12-04               South West     20
## 2374  2020-12-05               South West     17
## 2375  2020-12-06               South West     13
## 2376  2020-12-07               South West     16
## 2377  2020-12-08               South West     19
## 2378  2020-12-09               South West     21
## 2379  2020-12-10               South West     20
## 2380  2020-12-11               South West     20
## 2381  2020-12-12               South West     15
## 2382  2020-12-13               South West     19
## 2383  2020-12-14               South West     20
## 2384  2020-12-15               South West     20
## 2385  2020-12-16               South West      9
## 2386  2020-12-17               South West     26
## 2387  2020-12-18               South West     11
## 2388  2020-12-19               South West     22
## 2389  2020-12-20               South West     19
## 2390  2020-12-21               South West     22
## 2391  2020-12-22               South West     10
## 2392  2020-12-23               South West     16
## 2393  2020-12-24               South West     18
## 2394  2020-12-25               South West     19
## 2395  2020-12-26               South West     24
## 2396  2020-12-27               South West     24
## 2397  2020-12-28               South West     21
## 2398  2020-12-29               South West     20
## 2399  2020-12-30               South West     17
## 2400  2020-12-31               South West     27
## 2401  2021-01-01               South West     29
## 2402  2021-01-02               South West     24
## 2403  2021-01-03               South West     28
## 2404  2021-01-04               South West     30
## 2405  2021-01-05               South West     31
## 2406  2021-01-06               South West     24
## 2407  2021-01-07               South West     29
## 2408  2021-01-08               South West     33
## 2409  2021-01-09               South West     26
## 2410  2021-01-10               South West     31
## 2411  2021-01-11               South West     36
## 2412  2021-01-12               South West     48
## 2413  2021-01-13               South West     40
## 2414  2021-01-14               South West     32
## 2415  2021-01-15               South West     44
## 2416  2021-01-16               South West     54
## 2417  2021-01-17               South West     32
## 2418  2021-01-18               South West     42
## 2419  2021-01-19               South West     43
## 2420  2021-01-20               South West     62
## 2421  2021-01-21               South West     54
## 2422  2021-01-22               South West     57
## 2423  2021-01-23               South West     52
## 2424  2021-01-24               South West     59
## 2425  2021-01-25               South West     55
## 2426  2021-01-26               South West     42
## 2427  2021-01-27               South West     40
## 2428  2021-01-28               South West     48
## 2429  2021-01-29               South West     41
## 2430  2021-01-30               South West     36
## 2431  2021-01-31               South West     34
## 2432  2021-02-01               South West     28
## 2433  2021-02-02               South West     35
## 2434  2021-02-03               South West     31
## 2435  2021-02-04               South West     31
## 2436  2021-02-05               South West     24
## 2437  2021-02-06               South West     36
## 2438  2021-02-07               South West     32
## 2439  2021-02-08               South West     29
## 2440  2021-02-09               South West     28
## 2441  2021-02-10               South West     13
## 2442  2021-02-11               South West     13
## 2443  2021-02-12               South West      3

1.5 Completion date

We extract the completion date from the NHS Pathways file timestamp:


database_date <- attr(x, "timestamp")
database_date
## [1] "2021-02-11"

The completion date of the NHS Pathways data is Thursday 11 Feb 2021.

1.6 Auxiliary functions

These are functions which will be used further in the analyses.

Function to estimate the generalised R-squared as the proportion of deviance explained by a given model:


## Function to calculate R2 for Poisson model
## not adjusted for model complexity but all models have the same DF here

Rsq <- function(x) {
  1 - (x$deviance / x$null.deviance)
}

Function to extract growth rates per region as well as halving times, and the associated 95% confidence intervals:


## function to extract the coefficients, find the level of the intercept,
## reconstruct the values of r, get confidence intervals

get_r <- function(model) {
  ##  extract coefficients and conf int
  out <- data.frame(r = coef(model))  %>%
    rownames_to_column("var") %>% 
    cbind(confint(model)) %>%
    filter(!grepl("day_of_week", var)) %>% 
    filter(grepl("day", var)) %>%
    rename(lower_95 = "2.5 %",
           upper_95 = "97.5 %") %>%
    mutate(var = sub("day:", "", var))
  
  ## reconstruct values: intercept + region-coefficient
  for (i in 2:nrow(out)) {
    out[i, -1] <- out[1, -1] + out[i, -1]
  }
  
  ## find the name of the intercept, restore regions names
  out <- out %>%
    mutate(nhs_region = model$xlevels$nhs_region) %>%
    select(nhs_region, everything(), -var)
  
  ## find halving times
  halving <- log(0.5) / out[,-1] %>%
    rename(halving_t = r,
           halving_t_lower_95 = lower_95,
           halving_t_upper_95 = upper_95)
  
  ## set halving times with exclusion intervals to NA
  no_halving <- out$lower_95 < 0 & out$upper_95 > 0
  halving[no_halving, ] <- NA_real_
  
  ## return all data
  cbind(out, halving)
  
}

Functions used in the correlation analysis between NHS Pathways reports and deaths:

## Function to calculate Pearson's correlation between deaths and lagged
## reports. Note that `pearson` can be replaced with `spearman` for rank
## correlation.

getcor <- function(x, ndx) {
  return(cor(x$deaths[ndx],
             x$note_lag[ndx],
             use = "complete.obs",
             method = "pearson"))
}

## Catch if sample size throws an error
getcor2 <- possibly(getcor, otherwise = NA)

getboot <- function(x) {
  result <- boot::boot.ci(boot::boot(x, getcor2, R = 1000), 
                           type = "bca")
  return(data.frame(n = sum(!is.na(x$note_lag) & !is.na(x$deaths)),
                    r = result$t0,
                    r_low = result$bca[4],
                    r_hi = result$bca[5]))
}

Function to classify the day of the week into weekend, Monday, and the rest:


## Fn to add day of week
day_of_week <- function(df) {
  df %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = lubridate::wday(date, label = TRUE)) %>% 
    dplyr::mutate(day_of_week = dplyr::case_when(
      day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun") ~ "weekend",
      day_of_week %in% c("Mon") ~ "monday",
      !(day_of_week %in% c("Sat", "Sun", "Mon")) ~ "rest_of_week"
    ) %>% 
      factor(levels = c("rest_of_week", "monday", "weekend")))
}

Custom color palettes, color scales, and vectors of colors:


pal <- c("#006212",
         "#ae3cab",
         "#00db90",
         "#960c00",
         "#55aaff",
         "#ff7e78",
         "#00388d")

age.pal <- viridis::viridis(3,begin = 0.1, end = 0.7)

3 Comparison with deaths time series

3.1 Outline

We want to explore the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths, and assess the potential for reports to be used as an early warning system for disease resurgence.

Death data are publically available. We truncate the time series to avoid bias from reporting delay - we assume a conservative delay of three weeks.

3.2 Lagged correlation

We calculate Pearson’s correlation coefficient between deaths and NHS Pathways notifications using different lags. Confidence intervals are obtained using bootstrap. Note that results were also confirmed using Spearman’s rank correlation.

First we join the NHS Pathways and death data, and aggregate over all England:

## truncate death data for reporting delay
trunc_date <- max(dth$date_report) - delay_max

dth_trunc <- dth %>%
  rename(date = date_report) %>%
  filter(date <= trunc_date) 

## join with notification data
all_data <- x %>% 
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>%
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = T)) %>%
  ungroup %>%
  inner_join(dth_trunc,
             by = c("date","nhs_region"))

all_tot <- all_data %>%
  group_by(date) %>%
  summarise(count = sum(count, na.rm = TRUE),
            deaths = sum(deaths, na.rm = TRUE)) 

We calculate correlation with lagged NHS Pathways reports from 0 to 30 days behind deaths:


## Calculate all correlations + bootstrap CIs
lag_cor <- data.frame()
for (i in 0:30) {
  
  ## lag reports
  summary <- all_tot %>% 
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI
    getboot(.) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)

  lag_cor <- bind_rows(lag_cor, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag <- ggplot(lag_cor, aes(lag, r)) +
  theme_bw() +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)",
       y = "Pearson's correlation") +
  large_txt
cor_vs_lag


l_opt <- which.max(lag_cor$r)

This analysis suggests that the best lag is 15 days. We then compare and plot the number of deaths reported against the number of NHS Pathways reports lagged by 15 days.


all_tot <- all_tot %>%
  rename(date_death = date) %>%
  mutate(note_lag = lag(count, lag_cor$lag[l_opt]),
         note_lag_c = (note_lag - mean(note_lag, na.rm = T)),
         date_note = lag(date_death,16))

lag_mod <- glm(deaths ~ note_lag, data = all_tot, family = "quasipoisson")

summary(lag_mod)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = deaths ~ note_lag, family = "quasipoisson", data = all_tot)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -17.562  -15.004   -5.412    7.002   35.036  
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 5.055e+00  7.165e-02   70.55   <2e-16 ***
## note_lag    1.272e-05  1.235e-06   10.30   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 210.5247)
## 
##     Null deviance: 72529  on 295  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 56264  on 294  degrees of freedom
##   (15 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

exp(coefficients(lag_mod))
## (Intercept)    note_lag 
##  156.788819    1.000013
exp(confint(lag_mod))
##                 2.5 %     97.5 %
## (Intercept) 135.86156 179.943736
## note_lag      1.00001   1.000015

Rsq(lag_mod)
## [1] 0.2242541

mod_fit <- as.data.frame(predict(lag_mod, type = "link", se.fit = TRUE)[1:2])

all_tot_pred <- 
  all_tot %>%
  filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  mutate(pred = mod_fit$fit,
         pred.se = mod_fit$se.fit,
         low = exp(pred - 1.96*pred.se),
         hi = exp(pred + 1.96*pred.se))


glm_fit <- all_tot_pred %>% 
    filter(!is.na(note_lag)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = note_lag, y = deaths)) +
  geom_point() + 
  geom_line(aes(y = exp(pred))) + 
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = low, ymax = hi), alpha = 0.3, col = "grey") +
  theme_bw() +
  labs(y = "Daily number of\ndeaths reported",
       x = "Daily number of NHS Pathways reports") +
  large_txt

glm_fit

4 Supplementary figures

4.1 Serial interval distribution

This is a comparison of gamma versus lognormal distribution for the serial interval used to convert r to R in our analysis. Both distributions are parameterised with mean 4.7 and standard deviation 2.9.

SI_param <- epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale, w = 0.5)

SI_distribution2 <- distcrete::distcrete("lnorm", interval = 1,
                                        meanlog = log(4.7),
                                        sdlog = log(2.9), w = 0.5)

SI_dist1 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist1 <- count(SI_dist1, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 30, 5)) +
    theme_bw()

SI_dist2 <- data.frame(x = SI_distribution2$r(1e5)) 
SI_dist2 <- count(SI_dist2, x) %>%
    ggplot() +
    geom_col(aes(x = x, y = n)) +
    labs(x = "Serial interval (days)", y = "Frequency") +
    scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 200, 20), limits = c(0, 200)) +
    theme_bw()


ggpubr::ggarrange(SI_dist1,
                  SI_dist2,
                  nrow = 1,
                  labels = "AUTO") 

4.2 Sensitivity analysis - 7 or 21 days moving window

We reproduce the window analysis with either a 7 or 21 days window for sensitivity purposes.

First with the 7 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 7

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_7days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_7days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_7days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_7days <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
plot_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_7days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_7 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

Then with the 21 days window:

## set moving time window (1/2/3 weeks)
w <- 21

# create empty df
r_all_sliding_21days <- NULL

## make data for model
x_model_all_moving <- x %>%
  filter(!is.na(nhs_region)) %>% 
  group_by(date, nhs_region) %>%
  summarise(n = sum(count)) 

unique_dates <- unique(x_model_all_moving$date)

for (i in 1:(length(unique_dates) - w)) {
  
  date_i <- unique_dates[i]
  
  date_i_max <- date_i + w
  
  model_data <- x_model_all_moving %>%
    filter(date >= date_i & date < date_i_max) %>%
    mutate(day = as.integer(date - date_i)) %>% 
    day_of_week()
  
  
  mod <- glm(n ~ day * nhs_region + day_of_week,
             data = model_data,
             family = 'quasipoisson')
  
  # get growth rate
  r <- get_r(mod)
  r$w_min <- date_i
  r$w_max <- date_i_max
  
  # combine all estimates
  r_all_sliding_21days <- bind_rows(r_all_sliding_21days, r)
  
}

#serial interval distribution
SI_param = epitrix::gamma_mucv2shapescale(4.7, 2.9/4.7)
SI_distribution <- distcrete::distcrete("gamma", interval = 1,
                                        shape = SI_param$shape,
                                        scale = SI_param$scale,
                                        w = 0.5)

#convert growth rates r to R0
r_all_sliding_21days <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(R = epitrix::r2R0(r, SI_distribution),
         R_lower_95 = epitrix::r2R0(lower_95, SI_distribution),
         R_upper_95 = epitrix::r2R0(upper_95, SI_distribution))
# plot
plot_growth <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = r)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = "",override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated daily growth rate (r)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)
# plot
plot_R <-
  r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = R)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = R_lower_95, ymax = R_upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0.5,0.5, "cm")) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "",
       y = "Estimated effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal)

R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(lower_95 = R_lower_95, 
         upper_95 = R_upper_95,
         value = R,
         measure = "R",
         reference = 1)

r_R <- r_all_sliding_21days %>%
  mutate(measure = "r",
         value = r,
         reference = 0) %>%
  bind_rows(R)

r_R_21 <- r_R %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = w_max, y = value)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_95, ymax = upper_95, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.1) +
  geom_line(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_point(aes(colour = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(aes(yintercept = reference), linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  scale_weeks +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        plot.margin = margin(0.5,1,0,0, "cm"),
        strip.background = element_blank(),
        strip.placement = "outside"
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(title = "", override.aes = list(fill = NA)), fill = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = pal) +
  facet_grid(rows = vars(measure),
             scales = "free_y",
             switch = "y",
             labeller = as_labeller(c(r = "Daily growth rate (r)",
                                      R = "Effective reproduction\nnumber (Re)")))

And we combine both outputs into a single plot:


ggpubr::ggarrange(r_R_7,
                  r_R_21,
                  nrow = 2,
                  labels = "AUTO",
                  common.legend = TRUE,
                  legend = "bottom") 

4.3 Correlation between NHS Pathways reports and deaths by NHS region


lag_cor_reg <- data.frame()

for (i in 0:30) {

  summary <-
    all_data %>%
    group_by(nhs_region) %>%
    mutate(note_lag = lag(count, i)) %>%
    ## calculate rank correlation and bootstrap CI for each region
    group_modify(~getboot(.x)) %>%
    mutate(lag = i)
  
  lag_cor_reg <- bind_rows(lag_cor_reg, summary)
}

cor_vs_lag_reg <- 
lag_cor_reg %>%
ggplot(aes(lag, r, col = nhs_region)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, lty = "longdash") +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = r_low, ymax = r_hi, col = NULL, fill = nhs_region), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_line() +
  facet_wrap(~nhs_region) +
  scale_color_manual(values = pal) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = pal, guide = F) +  
  theme_bw() +
  labs(x = "Lag between NHS pathways and death data (days)", y = "Pearson's correlation", col = "NHS region") +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  guides(color = guide_legend(override.aes = list(fill = NA)))

cor_vs_lag_reg

5 Export data

We save the tables created during our analysis:


if (!dir.exists("excel_tables")) {
  dir.create("excel_tables")
}


## list all tables, and loop over export
tables_to_export <- c("r_all_sliding", "lag_cor")

for (e in tables_to_export) {
  rio::export(get(e),
              file.path("excel_tables",
                        paste0(e, ".xlsx")))
}

## also export result from regression on lagged data 
rio::export(lag_mod, file.path("excel_tables", "lag_mod.rds"))

6 System information

6.1 Outline

The following information documents the system on which the document was compiled.

6.2 System

This provides information on the operating system.

Sys.info()
##                                                                                             sysname 
##                                                                                            "Darwin" 
##                                                                                             release 
##                                                                                            "19.6.0" 
##                                                                                             version 
## "Darwin Kernel Version 19.6.0: Tue Jan 12 22:13:05 PST 2021; root:xnu-6153.141.16~1/RELEASE_X86_64" 
##                                                                                            nodename 
##                                                                           "Mac-1613297315321.local" 
##                                                                                             machine 
##                                                                                            "x86_64" 
##                                                                                               login 
##                                                                                              "root" 
##                                                                                                user 
##                                                                                            "runner" 
##                                                                                      effective_user 
##                                                                                            "runner"

6.3 R environment

This provides information on the version of R used:

R.version
##                _                           
## platform       x86_64-apple-darwin17.0     
## arch           x86_64                      
## os             darwin17.0                  
## system         x86_64, darwin17.0          
## status                                     
## major          4                           
## minor          0.3                         
## year           2020                        
## month          10                          
## day            10                          
## svn rev        79318                       
## language       R                           
## version.string R version 4.0.3 (2020-10-10)
## nickname       Bunny-Wunnies Freak Out

6.4 R packages

This provides information on the packages used:

sessionInfo()
## R version 4.0.3 (2020-10-10)
## Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin17.0 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS Catalina 10.15.7
## 
## Matrix products: default
## BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRblas.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.0/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
## 
## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
## 
## attached base packages:
## [1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     
## 
## other attached packages:
##  [1] ggnewscale_0.4.5     ggpubr_0.4.0         lubridate_1.7.9.2   
##  [4] chngpt_2020.10-12    cyphr_1.1.0          DT_0.17             
##  [7] kableExtra_1.3.1     janitor_2.1.0        remotes_2.2.0       
## [10] projections_0.5.2    earlyR_0.0.5         epitrix_0.2.2       
## [13] distcrete_1.0.3      incidence_1.7.3      rio_0.5.16          
## [16] reshape2_1.4.4       rvest_0.3.6          xml2_1.3.2          
## [19] linelist_0.0.40.9000 forcats_0.5.1        stringr_1.4.0       
## [22] dplyr_1.0.4          purrr_0.3.4          readr_1.4.0         
## [25] tidyr_1.1.2          tibble_3.0.6         ggplot2_3.3.3       
## [28] tidyverse_1.3.0      here_1.0.1           reportfactory_0.0.5 
## 
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] minqa_1.2.4       colorspace_2.0-0  selectr_0.4-2     ggsignif_0.6.0   
##  [5] ellipsis_0.3.1    rprojroot_2.0.2   snakecase_0.11.0  fs_1.5.0         
##  [9] rstudioapi_0.13   farver_2.0.3      fansi_0.4.2       splines_4.0.3    
## [13] knitr_1.31        jsonlite_1.7.2    nloptr_1.2.2.2    broom_0.7.4      
## [17] dbplyr_2.1.0      compiler_4.0.3    httr_1.4.2        backports_1.2.1  
## [21] assertthat_0.2.1  Matrix_1.2-18     cli_2.3.0         htmltools_0.5.1.1
## [25] tools_4.0.3       gtable_0.3.0      glue_1.4.2        Rcpp_1.0.6       
## [29] carData_3.0-4     cellranger_1.1.0  vctrs_0.3.6       nlme_3.1-149     
## [33] matchmaker_0.1.1  crosstalk_1.1.1   xfun_0.21         ps_1.5.0         
## [37] openxlsx_4.2.3    lme4_1.1-26       lifecycle_0.2.0   statmod_1.4.35   
## [41] rstatix_0.7.0     MASS_7.3-53       scales_1.1.1      hms_1.0.0        
## [45] parallel_4.0.3    sodium_1.1        yaml_2.2.1        curl_4.3         
## [49] gridExtra_2.3     stringi_1.5.3     highr_0.8         kyotil_2020.10-12
## [53] boot_1.3-25       zip_2.1.1         rlang_0.4.10      pkgconfig_2.0.3  
## [57] evaluate_0.14     lattice_0.20-41   labeling_0.4.2    htmlwidgets_1.5.3
## [61] cowplot_1.1.1     tidyselect_1.1.0  plyr_1.8.6        magrittr_2.0.1   
## [65] R6_2.5.0          generics_0.1.0    DBI_1.1.1         pillar_1.4.7     
## [69] haven_2.3.1       foreign_0.8-80    withr_2.4.1       mgcv_1.8-33      
## [73] survival_3.2-7    abind_1.4-5       modelr_0.1.8      crayon_1.4.1     
## [77] car_3.0-10        utf8_1.1.4        rmarkdown_2.6     viridis_0.5.1    
## [81] grid_4.0.3        readxl_1.3.1      data.table_1.13.6 reprex_1.0.0     
## [85] digest_0.6.27     webshot_0.5.2     munsell_0.5.0     viridisLite_0.3.0